“结构—行为—结果”视角下日本少子化对策失灵及启示研究  

A Study on the Failure of Japan's Countermeasures against the Low Birth Rate and Its Implications from a"Structure-Behavior-Outcome"Perspective

作　　者：李泽西 Li Zexi

机构地区：[1]四川省眉山市东坡区社会科学界联合会

出　　处：《社会福利》2025年第3期37-47,共11页Social Welfare

摘　　要：文章基于“结构—行为—结果”框架探讨日本少子化对策失灵成因及其带来的社会经济影响。研究发现,日本少子化对策失灵的结构性因素包括经济支持政策单一化且成效低、性别文化与传统观念的局限性、政策碎片化与协作机制不完善、家庭结构变化与育儿支持孱弱;日本少子化对策失灵结构下的行为反应表现有政策支持对家庭生育决策的间接效应、性别角色分工对生育选择的行为约束、个体主义的兴起与抵触传统婚育观念、育儿责任代际转移对婚内生育的抑制;人口结构失衡与社会超老龄化、经济增长乏力与区域发展失衡、个体家庭观念和婚育观念转变、性别不平等趋势加深是日本少子化对策失灵的结果。基于日本少子化对策的失灵现象有三点启示:制定综合性和长效性的经济支持政策,重视政策设计实用性与性别平等文化,强化与动态评估政策之间的协同效应。Through the"Structure-Behavior-Outcome"(SBO)framework,this paper explores the causes of the failure of Japan's countermeasures against the low birth rate and the socioeconomic consequences.It identifies several structural factors contributing to this failure,including the lack of diversity and low effectiveness of economic support policies,entrenched gender norms and traditional beliefs,policy fragmentation and weak coordination mechanisms,as well as shifts in family structures and inadequate childcare support.In response to these structural issues,behavioral patterns emerge:the indirect influence of policy measures on family fertility decisions,the restrictive impact of gender-based labor division on reproductive choices,the rise of individualism and resistance to traditional marriage and childbearing norms,and the intergenerational transfer of childcare responsibilities,which discourages childbirth within marriage.As a result,Japan faces demographic imbalances and an increasingly aged society,sluggish economic growth and regional disparities,the change of individual family concepts,and marriage and childbearing concepts,as well as the deepening trend of gender inequality.The failure of Japan's policies offers three key takeaways:the need for comprehensive and sustainable economic support measures,greater emphasis on practical policy design and the culture of gender equality,and improved policy coordination through continuous assessment and adjustment.

关 键 词：日本 少子化 少子化对策 生育政策 政策失灵 

分 类 号：C924.313[社会学—人口学]