中国重点产业链供应链行业产品进口韧性评估  

Assessment of Import Resilience of Sectoral Products in China’s Key Industrial Chain and Supply Chain

作　　者：沈国兵[1] SHEN Guo-bing(Institute of World Economy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学世界经济研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第3期96-113,共18页Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国重点产业链供应链韧性和安全水平评估与对策研究”(23ZDA032);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“双循环格局下中国推动产业链供应链多元化研究”(22JJD790013)。

摘　　要：美国供应链重塑下中国重点产业链供应链韧性和安全问题变得凸显。构建行业产品进口多元化指数,使用BEC产品分类的上中下游产品类别与HS2017统计下2018年和2022年中国HS6分位产品月度进口相匹配的数据,评估中国进口供给端上中下游行业产品的韧性和脆弱性,研究表明:(1)中国在上游初级中间消费品、上游一般加工中间消费品进口上不存在产供链中断风险,而在高技术上游产品的杂项化学产品等上存在进口脆弱性。(2)中国在中游特定加工中间消费品的无机和有机化合物等上存在进口脆弱性,在中游一般总固定资本形成品进口上不存在产供链中断风险,在中游特定总固定资本形成品的便携式自动数据处理设备、重量>15吨飞机等上存在进口脆弱性。同时,中国在高技术中游产品的有机和无机化合物、便携式自动数据处理设备、重量>15吨飞机等上存在进口脆弱性。(3)中国在下游初级非耐用和耐用最终消费品、下游加工非耐用和耐用最终消费品进口上不存在产供链中断风险,而在高技术下游产品的疫苗、便携式自动数据处理设备上存在进口脆弱性。为了加强产业链供应链,增强中国经济的竞争力,一方面需要聚焦化学行业短板产品进行自主研发生产,实现部分进口替代,另一方面需要大力拓展这些短板产品的进口多元化,以缓解进口中断风险;同时,需要聚焦有机化合物、无机化合物、便携式自动数据处理设备、小型飞机的自主研发生产,拓展这些产品进口多元化;另外,需要在疫苗和自动数据处理设备上加大对高校和科研院所的研发投入和企业的自主创新。Under the reshaping of the US supply chain,the resilience and security issues of China’s key industrial chain and supply chain have become prominent.By constructing an import diversification index for industry products and matching data from the BEC product classification(upstream,midstream,downstream)with monthly import data of China’s HS6-digit products under HS2017 statistics for 2018 and 2022,this study evaluates the resilience and vulnerability of China’s import supply chain across upstream,midstream,and downstream industries.The findings show that:(1)China does not face the risk of industrial and supply chain disruption in importing upstream primary intermediate consumption goods and upstream generic processed intermediate consumption goods,but exposes import vulnerability in high-tech upstream products such as miscellaneous chemical products.(2)China demonstrates import vulnerability in specific midstream processed intermediate consumption goods such as inorganic and organic compounds,but faces no risk of industrial and supply chain disruptions in importing midstream generic gross fixed capital formation goods;China reveals import vulnerability in portable automatic data processing equipment and aircraft weighing>15 tons for specified midstream gross fixed capital formation goods.(3)China does not run the risk of industrial and supply chain disruptions in importing downstream primary durable and non-durable,processed durable and non-durable final consumption goods,but shows import vulnerability in high-tech downstream products such as vaccines and portable automatic data processing equipment.To strengthen the industrial chain and supply chain and enhance the competitiveness of China’s economy,on one hand,it is necessary to address the independent R&D and production of weak links in the chemical industry to achieve partial import substitution.On the other hand,it is essential to vigorously diversify the import sources of these short-boards to mitigate the risk of import disruption.Meanwhile,efforts

关 键 词：产业链供应链 中间消费品 总固定资本形成品 最终消费品 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]