京津冀城市群碳源汇匹配关系的时空格局演化  

Spatiotemporal variations of carbon source-sink matching in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

作　　者：王超 谢泓毅 张馨予 曾雪婷 WANG Chao;XIE Hongyi;ZHANG Xinyu;ZENG Xueting(School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100070 [2]复旦大学环境科学与工程系,上海200433

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2025年第4期1343-1354,共12页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72304192);首都经济贸易大学新入职青年教师科研启动基金项目(XRZ2023066)资助。

摘　　要：京津冀城市群以典型的快速城镇化和区域协同发展为特征。明晰城市碳源和碳汇的变化特征、探讨区域碳收支平衡状态及变化规律对于实现“双碳”目标及区域可持续发展至关重要。本研究提出了碳源汇匹配关系的静态和动态分析方法,分析了京津冀城市群碳收支平衡状态变化以及匹配关系的演化规律。结果表明:京津冀地区的人类活动的碳排放量大于自然植被的固碳量,呈现明显的碳赤字状态,碳平衡指数保持在14%~27%,净碳排放量从2000年254.67 Mt快速增加到2013年678.08 Mt(峰值),之后趋于稳定,到2019年为668.98 Mt。各城市的碳源汇匹配关系差异明显。从静态角度分析,2019年张家口和承德为“高固碳-低排碳”类型,“碳汇”功能明显;其他城市中,6个属于“低固碳-高排碳”类型,4个为“低固碳-低排碳”类型,1个为“高固碳-高排碳”类型。从动态角度分析,京津冀地区20年的碳源汇匹配关系的演化轨迹为“增排增汇不可持续型”,单年度的演化轨迹波动性较大。各城市中,仅有北京20年演化轨迹为“增排增汇可持续型”,其发展路径更符合碳中和目标和低碳转型的要求。The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)urban agglomeration is characterized by rapid urbanization and coordinated development.It is important to clarify the changes of regional carbon sources and sinks,and to reveal the state and dynamics of regional carbon budget balance for achieving the“dual carbon”target and regional sustainable development.In this study,we used the static and dynamic analysis methods of carbon source-sink matching relationship to analyze the change of carbon budget balance state and the evolution of matching relationship in the BTH region.The results showed that carbon emissions due to human activities were higher than carbon sequestration from natural vegetation in the BTH region,indicating an obvious carbon deficit.The carbon balance index remained at 14%-27%.The net carbon emissions increased from 254.67 Mt in 2000 to the highest value of 678.08 Mt in 2013,and then tended to be stabilized as 668.98 Mt in 2019.The carbon balance matching varied greatly among the cities.From the static perspective,Zhangjiakou and Chengde were in“high carbon sequestration and low carbon emission”type in 2019,with an obvious carbon sink function.Among the other cities,six were in“low carbon sequestration and high carbon emission”type,four in“low carbon sequestration and low carbon emission”type,and one in“high carbon sequestration and high carbon emission”type.From a dynamic perspective,the 20-year evolution trajectory of carbon source-sink matching relationship in the BTH region was at an“emission increase-sink increase-unsustainable”type,and the evolution trajectory of a single year was highly variable.Among the various cities,the 20-year evolution trajectory of carbon balance matching relationship of Beijing was at an“emission increase-sink increase-sustainable”type,and its development path was more in line with the carbon neutrality target and low-carbon transition requirements.

关 键 词：碳中和 碳排放 碳固存 四象限法 动态演化 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]