中国农业经济韧性空间关联网络演化特征与机制研究  

Evolution Characteristics of Spatial Correlation Network of China’s Agricultural Economic Resilience and Mechanism Study

作　　者：王军 李军 吴海涛[1] 蒋子龙[3] Wang Jun;Li Jun;Wu Haitao;Jiang Zilong(School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;School of Tourism,Kaili University,Kaili Guizhou 556099,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,武汉430073 [2]凯里学院旅游学院,贵州凯里556099 [3]华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室,武汉430079

出　　处：《统计与决策》2025年第8期113-120,共8页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学创新工程项目(QNXSXF2023009);贵州省教育厅高校科技创新团队资助项目(黔教技[2023]091);贵州省黔千层人才项目(〔2024〕202201);凯里学院校级重点项目(2025ZD002)。

摘　　要：文章基于省级面板数据,利用社会网络分析(SNA)方法和动态指数随机图(TERGM)模型考察了2000—2022年中国农业经济韧性空间关联网络演化特征及多维驱动机制。研究发现:(1)中国农业经济韧性呈现波动增长趋势,区域差异逐渐缩小,总体稳中向好。(2)各省份农业经济韧性空间关联关系逐渐增强,不同省份之间关联强度具有明显的等级性。(3)山东、江苏、河南等农业大省在网络中占据核心位置,陕西、广东等省份充当重要中介角色。(4)农业经济韧性溢出模式趋向互惠性演化,网络结构较为稳定。Based on the provincial panel data,this paper uses Social Network Analysis(SNA)and the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM)to examine the evolution characteristics and multi-dimensional driving mechanisms of the spa⁃tial correlation network of agricultural economic resilience in China from 2000 to 2022.The findings go as the following:(1)The agricultural economic resilience in China shows a fluctuating growth trend,with regional differences gradually narrowing and an overall stable and positive development.(2)The spatial correlation relationship of agricultural economic resilience among provinc⁃es has gradually strengthened,and the correlation intensity among different provinces shows a clear hierarchical pattern.(3)Prov⁃inces with strong agricultural economies such as Shandong,Jiangsu and Henan occupy core positions in the network,while prov⁃inces like Shaanxi and Guangdong play important intermediary roles.(4)The spillover pattern of agricultural economic resilience tends to evolve towards reciprocity,and the network structure is relatively stable.

关 键 词：农业经济韧性 SNA方法 TERGM模型 网络演化 

分 类 号：F323.1[经济管理—产业经济]