基于博弈论-改进云模型的重力坝安全评价方法  

Safety Evaluation of Gravity Dam Based on Improved Cloud Model

作　　者：郑元江 李霞[1] 何磊[1] 唐杉彦嵚 ZHENG Yuanjiang;LI Xia;HE Lei;TANG Shanyanqin(Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学,重庆400074

出　　处：《水力发电》2025年第5期119-124,共6页Water Power

基　　金：水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022076);重庆市技术创新与应用发展重点项目(CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0198);重庆市水利科技项目(CQSLK-2022006);三峡后续工作项目(CQS23C00400,CQS23-C00399)。

摘　　要：为了提高重力坝安全评估的准确性,提出了基于改进云模型的重力坝安全评价模型,并运用于龙岗水库。结果表明,基于多步逆向云转换算法对随机样本数据进行云数字特征提取和处理,反复迭代推求样本数据,最终得到改进云参数,该方法相比传统云模型算法具有更好地实现定量评价与定性评价转换的能力;构建的博弈理论-多步逆向云转换算法的重力坝安全评价模型可以根据监测数据进行效果良好的安全评价;基于龙岗水库重力坝标准化监测数据与正态云安全评价等级之间相对贴近度的计算得到的安全等级为“低危”,说明该坝处于安全运行状态,符合实际情况,可为大坝风险评价提供借鉴。To enhance the accuracy of gravity dam safety assessment,this paper proposes a gravity dam safety evaluation model based on an improved cloud model and applies it to Longgang Reservoir.The results show that the method can effectively address the shortcomings of traditional single-step reverse cloud models by using a multi-step reverse cloud transformation algorithm for extracting and processing cloud numerical features from random sample data and iteratively refining sample data to obtain improved cloud parameters.The constructed gravity dam safety evaluation model,integrating the game theory with a multi-step reverse cloud transformation algorithm,provides effective safety assessment based on monitoring data.The safety level calculated from the relative closeness between standardized monitoring data of Longgang Reservoir gravity dam and the normal cloud safety evaluation grade is“low risk”,indicating that the dam is in a safe operating state,consistent with the actual situation.

关 键 词：重力坝 安全评价 组合赋权 多步逆向云转换 龙岗水库 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]