重症肺炎患者中性粒细胞降钙素原对病情严重程度的预测及列线图分析  

Prediction of severity of illness by nCD64 and PCT in patients with severe pneumonia and analysis of column charts

作　　者：牛泰然 Niu Tairan(Department of Critical Care Medicine,Nanyang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Henan 473000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省南阳市中医院重症医学科,473000

出　　处：《山西医药杂志》2025年第8期563-566,共4页Shanxi Medical Journal

摘　　要：目的研究中性粒细胞CD64(nCD64)、降钙素原(PCT)预测重症肺炎患者病情严重程度的价值。方法回顾性选取2023年1月至2023年12月本院接收的96例肺炎患者,按病情严重程度分成轻症组和重症组,2组均接受nCD64、PCT水平检测,选择Pearson相关性分析nCD64、PCT和病情严重程度的相关性,通过绘制列线图、校准曲线及受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)分析nCD64、PCT预测病情严重程度的价值。结果本研究共纳入96例肺炎患者,其中重症肺炎有19例,纳入重症组;其余77例纳入轻症组。重症组nCD64、PCT水平较轻症组更高(P<0.05)。通过构建肺炎患者病情严重程度的预测列线图模型,同时绘制校准曲线,发现该列线图模型预测肺炎患者病情严重程度的校准曲线接近于理想曲线。nCD64、PCT在病情严重程度上存在一定预测价值,尤其是联合预测对应的曲线下面积(AUC)值(95%CI)为0.960(0.904,1.016),意味着联合预测病情严重程度的价值更高(P<0.05)。结论nCD64、PCT水平在重症肺炎患者中呈现高表达,尤其是两者联合预测肺炎患者病情严重程度的价值较高,可为后续诊疗提供指导意见。Objective To study the value of neutrophil CD64(nCD64)and procalcitonin(PCT)in predicting the severity of disease in patients with severe pneumonia.Methods Ninety-six patients with pneumonia received in our hospital from January 2023 to December 2023 were retrospectively selected and divided into mild and severe groups according to the severity of the disease,and both groups were tested for the levels of nCD64 and PCT.Pearson′s correlation analysis was chosen to analyze the correlation between nCD64,PCT and the severity of the disease,and the value of nCD64,PCT and disease severity was analyzed by plotting the column line graph,calibration curve and the working characteristic curve of the subjects(ROC)to analyze the value of nCD64,PCT in predicting disease severity.Results A total of 96 patients with pneumonia were included in this paper,among which 19 cases of severe pneumonia were included in the severe group,and the remaining 77 cases were included in the mild group.The levels of nCD64 and PCT were higher in the severe group than in the mild group(P<0.05).By constructing a column-line graph model for predicting the severity of pneumonia patients and drawing a calibration curve at the same time,it was found that the calibration curve of the column-line graph model for predicting the severity of pneumonia patients was close to the ideal curve.nCD64 and PCT had some predictive value in the severity of disease,especially the joint prediction corresponded to an AUC(95%CI))value was 0.960(0.904,1.016),implying a higher value for joint prediction of disease severity(P<0.05).Conclusion The levels of nCD64 and PCT showed high expression in patients with severe pneumonia,especially the value of the combination of the two in predicting the severity of the disease in patients with pneumonia is high,which can guide subsequent diagnosis and treatment.

关 键 词：中性粒细胞减少 肺炎 降钙素原 呼吸道疾病 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]