美俄战略妥协与乌克兰危机前景:“边打边谈”还是终极博奔  

The Strategic Compromise between the US and Russia and the Prospects of the Ukraine Crisis:"Fighting While Negotiating"or the Final Game

作　　者：张弘[1] Zhang Hong(Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Russian,Eastern European and Central Asian Studies,CASS)

机构地区：[1]中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

出　　处：《和平与发展》2025年第2期48-70,163,164,169-174,共31页Peace and Development

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“乌克兰近代史研究”(项目编号:19VJX060)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：美俄战略博奔在很大程度上是影响乌克兰危机走势的决定性因素,特朗普重回白宫后主动缓和美俄战略关系,为政治解决乌克兰危机创造了一定机遇。特朗普出于“美国优先”的战略考虑,深度调整美国的俄乌政策,主动对俄做出重大妥协,放弃乌克兰加入北约的承诺,并试图迫使乌克兰接受俄乌领土的新现实,使俄乌停火出现曙光。普京积极回应特朗普的战略缓和政策,旨在全面解决乌克兰危机及其根源性问题,实现短期的领土诉求和长期的战略安全。当前美俄战略关系处于“有限缓和”阶段,双方合作仅限于乌克兰危机的技术性议题,在领土归属和安全保障等核心议题上仍存在分歧,能否突破僵局将取决于美俄战略妥协的程度及其他大国的配合。目前,乌克兰危机面临两种前景:一是美俄主导下的“终极博奔”,如美能说服乌克兰及欧洲与俄在领土分割和安全保障上相互实现重大妥协,就有可能达成持久的停火;二是“边打边谈”的长期对峙,如果美不能说服乌克兰及欧洲与俄各退一步,那么乌克兰危机则难以彻底解决,双方阵营将进入“边打边谈”的长期博奔模式。The strategic game between the United States and Russia is to a large extent a decisive factor influencing the development of the Ukraine crisis.After Trump returned to the White House,he took the initiative to ease the strategic relationship between the US and Russia,thus creating certain opportunities for a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.Out of the strategic consideration of"America First",Trump has profoundly adjusted the US policy towards Russia and Ukraine,proactively made major compromises with Russia,abandoned the commitment to Ukraine's accession to NATO,and attempted to force Ukraine to accept the new territorial reality between Russia and Ukraine,which brings hope for a ceasefire between the two countries.Putin actively responded to Trump's strategic easing policy,aiming to comprehensively address the Ukraine crisis and its root causes,and achieve short-term territorial claims and long-term strategic security.The current strategic relationship between the US and Russia is in a stage of"limited easing",and the cooperation between the two sides is confined to technical issues related to the Ukraine crisis,while differences remain on core issues such as territorial ownership and security guarantees.Whether the deadlock can be broken will depend on the degree of strategic compromise between the US and Russia and the cooperation of other major countries.At present,the Ukraine crisis faces two prospects.One is the"final game"led by the US and Russia.If the US can persuade Ukraine and Europe to make major compromises with Russia on territorial division and security guarantees,a lasting ceasefire may be reached.The other one is a long-term standoff of"fighting while negotiating".If the US fails to persuade Ukraine and Europe to make concessions with Russia,the Ukraine crisis will be difficult to resolve completely,and the two camps will enter a long-term game mode of"fighting while negotiating".

关 键 词：特朗普政府 美俄关系 乌克兰危机 俄罗斯外交 欧洲安全 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]