从“联欧遏俄”到“美国优先”——美国调整对乌克兰危机政策的影响初探  

From"Drawing in Europe to Contain Russia"to"America First":A Preliminary Study on the Impact of the United States' Adjustment of Its Policy on the Ukraine Crisis

作　　者：张文宗[1] 任怡静 Zhang Wenzong;Ren Yijing(Deputy Director and Senior Research Professor at the Institute of American Studies,CICIR;Doctoral Student at the Institute of International Relations,China Foreign Affairs University)

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院美国研究所 [2]外交学院国际关系研究所

出　　处：《和平与发展》2025年第2期71-89,164,165,共21页Peace and Development

基　　金：2022年国家社科基金项目的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：特朗普取代拜登入主白宫后,迅速调整美国在乌克兰危机上的立场和政策。从持续拱火到推动停火,从全力挺乌到胁迫施压,从“联欧俄”到“弃欧拉俄”,相关政策出现方向性变化。这源于特朗普“美国优先”的政治理念,源于其捞取实际利益、兑现竞选承诺及“离间中俄”的实用主义考虑,也体现了其单边主义和现实主义的外交风格。此举导致美俄关系触底反弹、美欧关系受到严重冲击,而俄欧关系面临的不确定上升,大国关系进入新的调整期。中国不是乌克兰危机的当事方,但美国政策的变化会对中国的战略环境产生影响。中俄协作抗衡美国的中美俄三角关系很难发生质变,而中美欧三角关系将更加平衡。如果俄乌最终实现停火并建立相对稳定的安全机制,全球地缘政治的重心将加速向亚太转移,中美关系将进一步成为牵动国际格局变迁的核心因素。After Trump replaced Biden in the White House,he promptly adjusted the Us'stance and policy on the Ukraine crisis.From continuously fanning the flames to promoting a ceasefire,from fully supporting Ukraine to coercing and pressuring Ukraine,and from"drawing in Europe to contain Russia"to"abandoning Europe and wooing Russia",there has been a directional change in relevant policies of the United States.This stems from Trump's political philosophy of"America First",and his pragmatic considerations of seeking practical benefits,fulfilling his campaign promises and"driving a wedge between China and Russia",which also reflects his diplomatic style of unilateralism and realism.Such a directional policy change of the United States has led to a bottoming out and rebound in US-Russia relations,a severe impact on USEuropean relations,and an increase of uncertainties in Russia-European relations,thus ushering in a new period of policy adjustment in majorcountry relations.China is not a party to the Ukraine crisis,but changes in US polices will exert an impact on China's strategic environment.The triangular relationship among China,the US and Russia,where China and Russia collaborate to counter the US,is unlikely to undergo a qualitative change,while the triangular relationship among China,the US and Europe will be more balanced.If Russia and Ukraine eventually achieve a ceasefire and establish a relatively stable security mechanism,the focus of global geopolitics will accelerate its shift to the Asia-Pacific region,and China-US relations will become the core factor initiating changes in the international landscape.

关 键 词：乌克兰危机 特朗普政府 美国优先 美俄关系 跨大西洋关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]