缅甸2021年以来国内冲突加剧的动因、影响及趋势  

The Causes,Impacts and Trends of Intensified Conflicts in Myanmar Since 2021

作　　者：杨芳芳 Yang Fangfang(Lecturer at the School of History and the Institute of ASEAN Studies,Zhengzhou University)

机构地区：[1]不详

出　　处：《和平与发展》2025年第2期137-161,167,168,共27页Peace and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目“独立后缅甸对外政策的调整与实践”(项目编号:24YJC770029)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：自2021年军方接管政权以来,缅甸政局持续动荡,反政府武装抵抗运动在全国范围内展开。当前战局陷入僵持状态,缅甸政府虽然控制了主要城市和行政体系,但其在东北部和西部的军区总部失守,边境管控能力削弱。部分少数民族地方武装成功夺取了一些边境口岸和资源要地,扩大了控制范围,但也遭受了严重打击。民盟领导的“人民国防军”既与少数民族地方武装在边境地区协同作战,也在中部开展游击战牵制军方兵力,但冲突双方均难以取得决定性胜利,战事呈现长期化趋势。军方与民盟和谈前景渺茫,军方持强硬立场,坚持依据2008年宪法重新举行选举,以确保其在政府中的地位和利益,而民盟则要求推翻军方统治,恢复民选政权,双方尚无谈判迹象。近期缅甸发生强烈地震后多方表示短暂停火,但国内冲突的僵持局面、军方的强硬政策以及军方与民盟的根本矛盾,共同决定了缅甸局势的复杂性和长期动荡趋势。Since the military took over power in 2021,the political situation in Myanmar has remained unstable,and armed resistance movements against the government have emerged across the country.The current war situation is in a stalemate.Although the Myanmar government is in control of major cities and the administrative system,its military district headquarters in northeast and west have been lost,and its border control capabilities have been weakened.Although some local armed groups of ethnic minorities have successfully seized some border crossings and key resource areas and expanded their control range,they have also suffered severe attacks.The"People's Defense Force"(PDF)led by the National League for Democracy(NLD)not only fights in coordination with the local armed forces of ethnic minorities in border areas but also carries out guerrilla warfare in the central region to contain the military forces of the government.However,neither side of the conflict can achieve a decisive victory,and the war has showed a prolonging trend.The prospects for peace talk between the military and the NLD are dim,as the military takes a tough stance and insists on re-holding elections based on the 2008 Constitution to ensure its position and interests in the government,while the NLD demands the overthrow of the military rule and the restoration of the elected regime.There are no signs of negotiations between the two sides yet.After the recent powerful earthquake in Myanmar,all parties indicated a brief ceasefire to facilitate humanitarian rescue.Nonetheless,the stalemate of the domestic conflict,the tough policies of the military and its fundamental contradictions with the NLD jointly determine the complexity and long-term instability of the situation in Myanmar.

关 键 词：缅甸问题 国内冲突 政治和解 政治转型 中缅关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]