农户耕地轮作决策的前因条件与组态路径  

The Antecedent Conditions and Configuration Pathways of Farmers'Crop Rotation Decisions

作　　者：杜国明[1] 李升生 卢汇川 DU Guoming;LI Shengsheng;LU Huichuan(Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,Heilongjiang,China;University of York,York YO105DD,England)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]约克大学,约克郡YO105DD

出　　处：《东北农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期64-73,共10页Journal of Northeast Agricultural University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“东北黑土区耕地轮作的主体协同及制度优化研究”(21BJY209)。

摘　　要：为推动农户落实耕地轮作政策、健全我国耕地轮作制度,文章运用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法,深入探讨了农户在耕地轮作决策中的前因条件及组态路径。研究表明,农户轮作行为受多因素叠加形成的复合效应影响,主要可归纳为三种路径类型,即“耕地资源+思想认识驱动型”“人力资源+思想认识驱动型”以及“双重资源+技能提升引领型”。上述路径与农户生计特征密切相关,不同类型农户在轮作路径选择上差异显著。此外,对轮作政策的理解、生态保护意识以及技术培训是增强轮作采纳意愿的关键激励因素。基于此,提出分层协同策略:针对家庭农场和种粮大户通过智能设备与服务补贴以及合理规划提升轮作效率;针对小农户通过土地流转与社会化服务降低轮作参与门槛;针对农业生产合作社选拔骨干参与人才培训发挥示范作用。同时,需完善政策支撑体系,差异化配置补贴、信贷与基础设施资源,深化政策宣导的靶向性与实操性,最终形成农业生产提质、农户增收与耕地可持续利用的共赢格局。This study aims to provide insights for promoting farmers'adoption of crop rotation policies and improving China's farmland rotation system.Utilizing fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA),it delves into the conditional factors and configuration pathways underlying farmers'crop rotation decisions in farming practices.The research findings indicate that farmers'crop rotation decisions are the composite effects of multiple overlapping conditions,which can be simplified into three pathways:"land resources+ideological and cognitive drive,""human resources+ideological and cognitive drive,"and"dual resources+skill enhancement leadership."The construction of each pathway is closely linked to the characteristics of farmers'livelihoods,and path selection among different farmer groups exhibits significant variability.Understanding of policies,environmental protection concepts,and technical training are crucial incentive factors that help strengthen farmers'intentions to implement crop rotation.Based on these insights,the study proposes a hierarchical collaborative strategy:For family farms and large-scale grain producers,efficiency can be improved through subsidies for smart agricultural equipment and services,coupled with optimized rotation planning;for small-scale traditional farmers,participation barriers can be reduced via land transfer mechanisms and socialized service networks;for agricultural cooperatives,demonstration effects can be amplified by training core members as agricultural leaders.Furthermore,a robust policy support system should be established,featuring differentiated allocation of subsidies,credit resources,and infrastructure investments.Targeted and practical policy communication should also be strengthened to foster a multidimensional win-win outcome encompassing agricultural productivity improvement,farmer income growth,and sustainable land use.

关 键 词：耕地保护 耕地轮作 模糊集定性比较分析 组态路径 

分 类 号：F325[经济管理—产业经济] S344[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]