基于情景构建的地震应急全过程分析——以X市为例  

Earthquake Emergency Process Analysis Based on Scenario Construction:Taking X City as an Example

作　　者：陈宁 李季梅 张丽 宁利君 焦心怡 CHEN Ning;LI Jimei;ZHANG Li;NING Lijun;JIAO Xinyi(Institute of Urban Safety and Environmental Science,Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,Beijing 100054,China;Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市科学技术研究院城市安全与环境科学研究所,北京100054 [2]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036

出　　处：《安全》2025年第4期1-10,共10页Safety & Security

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72304042);北京市科学技术研究院北科青年学者计划(25CE-YS-08);北京市科学技术研究院财政科研项目(25CB001-04)。

摘　　要：为给地震响应规划及应急机制优化提供依据,以X市发生的地震突发事件为例,利用情景构建模拟强震害情景下地震应急响应的全过程,对地震情景描述、震后灾区情况、震后应急处置任务进行实例分析与探讨,通过能力与差距分析,发现应急响应中的薄弱环节。结果表明:基于情景构建的应急响应全过程分析为优化地震应急预案和行动方案、合理规划地震应急设施及物资储备、统筹规划地震次生衍生灾害分析和防控提供了清晰的框架和标准,有助于各部门之间明确职责、协调配合,进而提升整个地震应急体系的协同性和高效性。In order to provide support for earthquake response planning and the optimization of emergency mechanisms,taking an earthquake emergency event that occurred in X city as an example,the entire process of earthquake emergency response under a simulated strong earthquake disaster scenario was constructed using scenario.Analysis and discussion were carried out on the earthquake scenario description,the situation in the disaster area,and emergency response tasks.Through capability and gap analysis,the weak links in the emergency response were identified.The results show that the emergency response process analysis based on scenario construction provides a clear framework and standard for optimizing earthquake emergency plans and action plans,rationally planning earthquake emergency facilities and material reserves,and integrating planning for the analysis,prevention and control of secondary and derivative disasters of earthquakes.It is helpful to clarify responsibilities and coordinate among various departments,and then improve the coordination and efficiency of the whole earthquake emergency system.

关 键 词：地震 情景构建 应急响应 能力评估 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]