基于系统动力学的新冠肺炎疫情传播模型构建  

Construction of Spread Model for COVID-19 Epidemic Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：赵雪珊 罗通元 张玉宁 ZHAO Xueshan;LUO Tongyuan;ZHANG Yuning(College of Advanced Agricultural Sciences,Yulin University,Yulin Shaanxi 719000,China;College of Energy Engineering,Yulin University,Yulin Shaanxi 719000,China;College of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an Shaanxi 710065,China)

机构地区：[1]榆林学院现代农学院,陕西榆林719000 [2]榆林学院能源工程学院,陕西榆林719000 [3]西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安710065

出　　处：《安全》2025年第4期19-26,共8页Safety & Security

基　　金：中国高等教育学会国家高等教育科学研究规划课题(23NL0411);榆林学院高层次人才科研启动基金资助(2023GK48);陕西省本科高等教学改革研究项目(23BG045);陕西省教育科学规划课题(SGH20Q225);榆林学院本科教育教学改革研究项目(JG2468)。

摘　　要：为提高政府应对公共卫生事件的应急管理能力,基于系统动力学(SD)方法构建新冠肺炎疫情传播模型。首先,运用系统动力学方法从事件扩散、人员受影响状况、谣言传播和公共管理机构应对4个方面研究公共卫生事件各要素的相互关系;其次,基于公共卫生事件传播因果关系,以其造成的受伤人数和谣言发展情况为主要研究对象,构建新冠肺炎疫情传播模型;最后,以2021年12月9日-2022年2月6日某市新冠疫情事件为基础对该模型进行验证。结果表明:该模型模拟实际病人总数的误差为2.94%,能较准确预测其变化趋势,且政府越早采取防控措施效果越好;预测得出的谣言感染人数变化趋势,基本与该市实施封闭式管理后谣言感染人数达到峰值的时间相同。该模型能较准确地预测实际病人总数和谣言感染总数的变化趋势,可为预警和预防公共卫生事件提供参考。In order to improve the government's emergency management capabilities in responding to public health emergencies,a COVID-19 epidemic spread model based on system dynamics(system dynamics,SD)was constructed.First,the interrelationships among various elements of public health emergencies were studied from four aspects:event diffusion,infected personnel situation,rumor spread,and public management institution response using the system dynamics model.Second,the number of injured individuals and the rumor development situation caused by public health emergencies were taken as the main objects to construct the spread model for COVID-19 epidemic based on the causal relationships of public health emergencies.Finally,the model was verified taking a specific city's COVID-19 epidemic from December 9,2021 to February 6,2022 as a case.The results show that the error of the simulation number is 2.94%,the change trend prediction is relatively accurate,and the earlier the prevention and control measures are taken,the better the effect is;and that the change trend prediction for the rumored infected number is basically in line with the time of the rumored infected number peak after implementing the enclosed management.This model can predict more accurately the change trend for the actual total number of patients and the rumored infected,and provide a reference for the early warning and prevention of public health emergencies.

关 键 词：公共卫生事件 新冠疫情 应急管理 系统动力学 预测 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学] D630[政治法律—政治学]