银发红利:人口老龄化对平台经济的影响——基于空间计量模型的实证分析  

The Silver Dividend:The Impact of Population Aging on the Platform Economy--An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Econometric Modeling

作　　者：汪瑶 Wang Yao(Governance and Political Studies Institute(China Rural Institute)Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学政治学与国家治理研究院(中国农村研究院),武汉430079

出　　处：《甘肃行政学院学报》2025年第1期82-94,128,共14页Journal of Gansu Administration Institute

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国基层治理现代化的制度、成效与经验研究”(24&ZD142);华中师范大学优创项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)“新时期农村互助养老服务体系研究”(2023CXZZ114)。

摘　　要：发展银发经济是积极应对人口老龄化的重要举措,而平台经济在其中扮演着关键角色。本文基于2013—2023年全国省级面板数据,实证分析人口老龄化对平台经济的影响及其空间溢出效应,并以城镇化和社会消费水平为门槛变量,探讨人口老龄化影响平台经济的差异性和动态性。研究发现:人口老龄化显著促进了本地区平台经济发展。人口老龄化程度每提升1个百分点,平台经济发展水平平均增长约3.08%。这种促进作用呈现“梯度式”增强特征,但受到城镇化进程的调节,表现为“螺旋式”衰减趋势,同时随社会消费水平提升表现为先抑制后促进的非线性关系。人口老龄化对平台经济的影响存在正向空间溢出效应,即经济地理距离相近地区的人口老龄化程度越高,本地区的平台经济发展水平越高。人口老龄化引发的空间溢出效应在推动平台经济发展中发挥了重要作用。The development of silver hair economy is an important initiative to actively respond to population aging,and platform economy plays a key role in it.Based on provincial panel data from 2013-2023,the study empirically analyzes the impact of popu⁃lation aging on platform economy and its spatial spillover effect,and explores the differences and dynamics of population aging af⁃fecting platform economy with urbanization and social consumption level as threshold variables.The results show that population ag⁃ing significantly promotes the development of platform economy in the region.For every 1 percentage point increase in the level of population aging,the level of platform economic development grows by about 3.08%on average.Further analysis reveals that this promotion effect is characterized by a“gradient”enhancement,but regulated by the urbanization process,it shows a“spiral”decay trend,and at the same time,with the increase in the level of social consumption,it shows a non-linear relationship of inhibition fol⁃lowed by promotion.There is a positive spatial spillover effect of population aging on the platform economy,i.e.,the higher the de⁃gree of population aging in regions with similar economic and geographical distances,the higher the level of development of the platform economy in the region,and the spatial spillover effect triggered by population aging plays an important role in promoting the development of the platform economy.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 平台经济 银发红利 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]