淮河流域安徽段水生态风险与抵御力耦合及驱动因素研究  

Study on the coupling and driving factors of water ecological risk and resilience in Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin

作　　者：张尚云 何刚[1] ZHANG Shangyun;HE Gang(School of economics and management Anhui University of Science&Technology,Huainan Anhui 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《河北环境工程学院学报》2025年第2期45-55,共11页Journal of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72271005);安徽省哲学社科规划项目(AHSKY2022D124);安徽理工大学2024年研究生创新基金项目(2024cx2140)。

摘　　要：为明晰淮河流域安徽段水生态风险与抵御力耦合协调规律,探究复杂环境下流域城市演变趋势和驱动因素。从“水生态环境风险性-水生态资本抵御力”维度构建指标,借助核密度估计与地理探测器,分析水生态风险与抵御力的时空分异特征,探究水生态协调驱动因子。结果表明:安徽段水生态风险呈“M”型波动下降态势,风险暴露性是决定水生态风险的主导指标;安徽段水生态抵御力从较低提高到中等抵御力水平,各市均平稳上升,社会与经济资本成为关键因素;安徽段耦合协调从“濒临失调”向“初级协调”发展,区域差异逐年缩小,城市自然资源禀赋与水污染排放治理成为驱动水生态协调的重要因素。The coupling and coordination of hydro-ecological risk and resilience in the Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin is clarified, and the trend and driving factors of urban evolution in the basin under the complex environment are investigated. Indicators are constructed from the dimension of " hydro-ecological risk and hydro-ecological resilience", and with the help of kernel density estimation and geographic probes, the temporal and spatial characteristics of hydro-ecological risk and resilience are analyzed, and the driving factors of hydro-ecological coordination are explored. The results show that the hydro-ecological risk in the Anhui section shows an M-shaped fluctuating and decreasing trend, and the risk exposure is the dominant indicator to determine the hydro-ecological risk. The water ecological resilience of the Anhui section increased from low to medium resilience, and increased steadily in all cities, with social and economic capital as the key aspects. The coupling coordination in the Anhui section develops from " on the verge of dissonance" to "primary coordination", with regional differences narrowing year by year. Urban natural resource endowment and water pollution discharge control become important factors driving the coordination of water ecology.

关 键 词：水生态风险 耦合协调度 核密度 地理探测器 驱动因子 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]