淮南市生态安全风险评价、预警及障碍因子诊断  

Risk assessment early warning and obstacle factor diagnosis of ecological security in Huainan City

作　　者：朱艳娜[1] 侯小宇 蒋怀印 ZHU Yanna;HOU Xiaoyu;JIANG Huaiyin(School of Economics and Management Anhui University of Science&Technology,Huainan Anhui 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《河北环境工程学院学报》2025年第2期56-65,共10页Journal of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72271005);淮南市建设“七个强市”规划重点课题(qgqs2024007)。

摘　　要：为推动建设“生态强市”,基于PSR模型构建淮南市生态安全评价指标体系,应用综合指数法评价淮南市2011—2022年生态安全水平;运用GM(1,1)测算2023—2027年生态安全评价指数及贴近度,采用ARIMA对评价指数再次模拟、验证;借助障碍度模型诊断其障碍因子。结果表明:2011—2022年淮南市生态安全综合指数呈波动上升态势,安全等级从“较不安全”上升为“临界安全”;压力子系统的评价指数上升,状态和响应子系统的评价指数呈先下降后上升态势。预测2023—2027年淮南市生态安全综合指数总体呈波动上升状态,由“临界安全”向“较安全”转变,警情由“中警”向“轻警”转变。影响淮南市生态安全的主要障碍因素包括土地垦殖比例、造林总面积、城乡人均可支配收入比、人均水资源总量和环保投资额比例。To promote the construction of an "ecological strong city" in Huainan City, an ecological security evaluation index system was established based on the PSR model. The ecological security level of Huainan City from 2011 to 2022 was evaluated using the comprehensive index method.The GM(1,1) model was used to predict the ecological security evaluation index and degree of closeness from 2023 to 2027, and the ARIMA model was adopted to simulate and verify the evaluation index again. The obstacle degree model was utilized to diagnose the obstacle factors. The results show that: From 2011 to 2022, the comprehensive index of ecological security in Huainan City showed a fluctuating and rising trend, with the security grade rising from "relatively unsafe" to "critically safe". The evaluation index of the pressure subsystem increased, while those of the state and response subsystems first decreased and then increased. It is predicted that the ecological security comprehensive index of Huainan City will fluctuate and rise from "critical safe" to "relatively safe" in 2023—2027, and the alert level will shift from "medium alert" to "light alert". The main obstacle factors affecting the ecological security of Huainan City include the proportion of cultivated land, the total area of afforestation, the ratio of per capita disposable income between urban and rural areas, the total per capita water resources, and the proportion of environmental protection investment.

关 键 词：矿业城市 生态安全 风险评价 障碍因子 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]