基于物元理论和证据理论的大坝安全评估  

Safety Assessment of Dams Based on Matter-Element Theory and Evidence Theory

作　　者：朱渊 王祥 姜楚 梁经纬 陈迪 ZHU Yuan;WANG Xiang;JIANG Chu;LIANG Jingwei;CHEN Di(Hunan Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Changsha 410007,China;Hunan Dam Safety and Disease Control Engineering Technology Research Center,Changsha 410007,China;Hunan Kehong Dam Monitoring Center Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410007,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省水利水电科学研究院,湖南长沙410007 [2]湖南省大坝安全与病害防治工程技术研究中心,湖南长沙410007 [3]湖南省科宏大坝监测中心有限公司,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《长江技术经济》2025年第2期30-37,共8页Technology and Economy of Changjiang

基　　金：湖南省水利科技项目(XSKJ2021000-09)。

摘　　要：为解决大坝安全评价中存在的不确定性、随机性和模糊性等问题,以某混凝土面板堆石坝为例,基于大坝安全指标评价体系,建立基于物元理论和证据理论的面板堆石坝安全评判模型。采用监测数据由物元理论求得关联函数,进而转化得到基本概率分配;而后基于最小鉴别信息原理,运用熵权法和G1法计算评价指标复合权重,对原始证据进行修正;最后参考证据合成规则得到大坝安全综合评判结果。结果表明,该大坝安全评估模型可减少大坝综合评估过程中存在的主观性和不确定性,使评判结果更加客观合理。To address the uncertainties,randomness,and fuzziness inherent in dam safety evaluation,this study proposed an integrated assessment model for concrete-faced rockfill dams by combining matter-element theory with evidence theory,taking a concrete face rockfill dam as an example.We established a safety indicator system and processed monitoring data through matter-element analysis to derive correlation functions,which are then transformed into basic probability assignments.Subsequently,based on the principle of minimum discrimination information,this paper employed a hybrid weighting method integrating entropy weighting and G1 method to compute composite indicator weights,thereby modifying the original evidence.Finally,we obtained comprehensive safety evaluation results through the evidence fusion rule.The results demonstrated that the proposed model effectively reduces subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process,yielding more objective and reliable conclusions.

关 键 词：混凝土面板堆石坝 评价体系 安全评估 物元理论 证据理论 

分 类 号：TV642[水利工程—水利水电工程]