基于贝叶斯网络的连续梁桥挂篮系统风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Hanging Basket System for Continuous Beam Bridge Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：吴传洋 WU Chuanyang(China Railway 24th Bureau Group Anhui Engineering Co.Ltd.,Hefei Anhui 23001l,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁二十四局集团安徽工程有限公司,安徽合肥230011

出　　处：《铁道建筑技术》2025年第4期137-140,共4页Railway Construction Technology

基　　金：中铁二十四局集团有限公司科技研发项目(2023-01)。

摘　　要：为明确挂篮系统在施工过程中的潜在风险,基于贝叶斯网络基本原理,对影响挂篮系统失效的各风险因素建立拓扑网络,并综合考虑专家意见和以往挂篮系统失效工程实例,构建挂篮系统失效的贝叶斯网络;为验证所构建的挂篮系统失效贝叶斯网络的可行性,以阜淮铁路跨青阜线(72+72)m连续梁桥悬浇施工为例,通过挂篮系统失效贝叶斯网络对桥梁挂篮系统失效概率进行预测,并利用贝叶斯网络反向推理功能,假定挂篮系统失效,反向推测对挂篮系统失效影响最大的风险因素,以期为挂篮施工提供安全预警。In order to clarify the potential risks of the hanging basket system in the construction process,based on the basic principle of Bayesian network,this paper establishes a topological network between the risk factors affecting the failure of the hanging basket system,and comprehensively considers the expert opinions and previous engineering examples of the failure of the hanging basket system to construct the Bayesian network of the failure of the hanging basket system.In order to verify the feasibility of the failed Bayesian network of the hanging basket system,this paper takes the suspension pouring construction of the(72+72)m continuous beam bridge across the Qingfu line of Fuyang-Huainan Railway as an example,starts the failure Bayesian network of the hanging basket system to predict the failure probability of the hanging basket system,and uses the reverse reasoning function of the Bayesian network to assume the failure of the hanging basket system,and inversely speculates the risk factors that have the greatest impact on the failure of the hanging basket system,hoping to providing a safety early warning for the hanging basket construction.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 挂篮系统 风险分析 安全性评估 

分 类 号：TU714[建筑科学—建筑技术科学] U445.38[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]