气候变化情景下枫香在中国的潜在地理分布  

Potential geographical distribution of Liquidambar formosana in China under the situation of climate change

作　　者：李康杰 邓海燕 邹文涛[1] LI Kangjie;DENG Haiyan;ZOU Wentao(Research Institute of Tropical Forestry,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Guangzhou 510520,Guangdong,China;Guangdong Forestry Survey and Planning Institute,Guangzhou 510520,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院热带林业研究所,广东广州510520 [2]广东省林业调查规划院,广东广州510520

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2025年第4期128-138,共11页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：广东省林业科技创新项目(2021KJCX018)。

摘　　要：【目的】枫香是我国优良速生落叶阔叶树种,也是荒山造林、混交造林的优良树种。研究枫香在未来气候变化下潜在的适生区分布和对环境因子的响应,旨在探究环境变量如何影响枫香的潜在地理分布,以期为枫香种质资源的有效利用提供坚实且科学的理论支撑。【方法】筛选19个气候因子和3个地形因子,通过MaxEnt模型分析枫香在当前气候情景下的分布情况,并预测在未来2个时期(2041—2060s、2081—2100s)和3种气候情景(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)下枫香的潜在分布动态。【结果】1)MaxEnt模型模拟AUC值为0.915,模拟精度极高;2)对枫香分布起主导作用的5个因子分别是温度季节性变化(280~770℃)、平均温度日较差(4.8~8.0℃)、年平均降水量(1426~4017 mm)、降水量变异系数(23.8~62.5)和最干月降水量(36~216 mm);3)当前枫香适生区总面积为229.06万km^(2),占中国总面积的23.9%;未来不同气候情景下适生区面积大小为SSP585>SSP245>SSP126>Current,同一气候情景下适生区面积大小为2090s>2050s>Current,适生区面积随着排放量和时间的增加而增加;4)枫香适生区主要分布在湖南、江西、广西、浙江、福建、安徽、江苏、台湾地区等地;未来3种气候情景下,枫香潜在适生区向北扩张,西部适生分布区缩减,扩张区域主要分布在河南北部、陕西中部、山东中部和辽宁南部,收缩区域主要分布在云南西南部、西藏南部和台湾地区等地;未来3种情景下,枫香在2050s、2090s时期的适生分布质心有整体向东北迁移的趋势。【结论】研究表明,温度和降水是影响枫香当前与未来气候情景下地理分布的主导因子。随着气候变暖,枫香能够适应未来高浓度的温室气体环境,适生区面积逐渐增加,在未来可以作为优良的阔叶造林树种,用于改造森林景观、营造混交林、改善林地生境和提高森林质量。【Objective】Liquidambar formosana is a highly valued fast-growing deciduous broad-leaved tree species in China,particularly favored for afforestation on barren lands and in mixed afforestation projects.This study aims to investigate the potential geographic distribution of Liquidambar formosana under future climate change scenarios and its response to environmental factors.The research is intended to provide a comprehensive understanding of how environmental variables influence the potential distribution of Liquidambar formosana,with the ultimate goal of offering robust and scientifically grounded theoretical support for the effective utilization of its germplasm resources.【Method】Using a combination of 19 climate factors and 3 terrain factors,the MaxEnt model was employed to analyze the current distribution and predict the potential distribution dynamics of Liquidambar formosana for two future periods(2041-2060s,2081-2100s)under three distinct climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585).【Result】1)The MaxEnt model simulation AUC value was 0.915,indicating high simulation accuracy;2)Five factors play a dominant role in the distribution of Liquidambar formosana,including temperature seasonality(280-770℃),mean diurnal temperature range(4.8-8.0℃),annual mean precipitation(1426-4017 mm),precipitation coefficient of variation(23.8-62.5),and driest month precipitation(36-216 mm);3)The current suitable area for Liquidambar formosana is 229.06×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for 23.9%of China’s total area.Under different emission scenarios,the size of the suitable area is SSP585>SSP245>SSP126>Current,and within the same emission scenario,the size of the suitable area is 2090s>2050s>Current,with the suitable area increasing with increasing emissions and time;4)Currently,Liquidambar formosana’s suitable habitat is mainly found in Hunan,Jiangxi,Guangxi,Zhejiang,Fujian,Anhui,Jiangsu,and Taiwan region.Under the three climate scenarios considered,the potential suitable habitat for Liquidambar formosana is expected to ex

关 键 词：枫香 气候变化 MaxEnt模型 潜在适生区 

分 类 号：S716.3[农业科学—林学]