中国光伏-液氢跨区域利用的经济和减排效益分析  

ECONOMIC AND EMISSION REDUCTION BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF TRANS-REGIONAL UTILIZATION OF PHOTOELECTRIC-LIQUID HYDROGEN IN CHINA

作　　者：郑玉华[1] 周亚西 胡杭健 段志祥[2] Zheng Yuhua;Zhou Yaxi;Hu Hangjian;Duan Zhixiang(China University of Petroleum-Beijing,School of Economics and Management,Beijing 102249,China;China Special Equipment Inspection&Research Institute,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京102249 [2]中国特种设备检测研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2025年第4期153-163,共11页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(21ZDA030);国家重点研发项目专项(2020YFB1506204)。

摘　　要：考虑中国光伏电解水制氢资源的分布特点以及氢能的运输方式,提出近距离配送气、液氢和远距离调运液氢的供应链方案。首先,从平准化成本和CO_(2)排放强度两个方面分析不同氢能供应链的经济和环境效益;其次,考虑技术发展的不确定性,运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法分析2030年和2050年不同供应链方案的发展趋势。结果表明,当氢能配送距离小于400 km时,各省省内气氢的平准化成本低于省内液氢和外省调运液氢,但外省调运液氢普遍具有CO_(2)排放强度低的优势;在华中地区等太阳能资源差、光伏绿氢成本高的地区,外调液氢已具有成本优势。到2030年各省外调液氢的成本优势将逐渐显现,尤其是华中、西南、华东地区;到2050年液氢的成本和环境优势将进一步突出,东北、华北、华南和西北地区应考虑布局省内液氢和外省调运液氢的供应链方案。Considering the distribution characteristics of hydrogen production through photovoltaic electrolysis in China and the transportation methods of hydrogen energy,supply chain schemes for short-distance distribution of gaseous and liquid hydrogen,and long-distance transportation of liquid hydrogen are proposed.First,the economic and environmental benefits of different hydrogen supply chains were analyzed in terms of levelized-cost and CO_(2) emission intensity.Second,considering the uncertainty of technological development,Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to analyze the future development trends of different supply chain schemes in 2030 and 2050.The results show that when the hydrogen distribution distance is less than 400 km,the levelzed cost of gaseous hydrogen within each province is lower than that of liquid hydrogen within the province or transported from external provinces.However,the transportation of liquid hydrogen from external provinces generally offers advantages in reducing CO_(2) emission.Transferring liquid hydrogen to regions with poor solar energy resources and high costs of photovoltaic green hydrogen,such as central China,already has cost advantages.By 2030,the cost advantage of transporting liquid hydrogen from other provinces will gradually become apparent,especially in the Central,Southwestern,and Eastern regions of China.By 2050,the cost and environmental advantages of liquid hydrogen will be further highlighted,and the Northeast,North China,South China,and Northwest regions should consider developing supply chains for liquid hydrogen within the province and for transporting liquid hydrogen from external provinces.

关 键 词：光伏 氢经济 可再生燃料 加氢站 液氢 二氧化碳排放 

分 类 号：TK91[动力工程及工程热物理]