计及多重不确定性的IES两阶段多目标协同规划方法  

TWO-STAGE MULTI-OBJECTIVE COLLABORATIVE PROGRAMMING METHOD FOR IES CONSIDERING MULTIPLE UNCERTAINTIES

作　　者：杨世明 李睿 赵昕[1,2] 韩中合 张翰[1,2] 吴迪[1,2] Yang Shiming;Li Rui;Zhao Xin;Han Zhonghe;Zhang Han;Wu Di(Department of Power Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Low-Carbon and High-Efficiency Power Generation Technology,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学动力工程系,保定071003 [2]华北电力大学河北省低碳高效发电技术重点实验室,保定071003

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2025年第4期220-231,共12页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52177084);河北省自然科学基金(E2022502017,E2023502040)。

摘　　要：针对综合能源系统规划中源荷多重不确定性问题和容量与运行规划相互独立的问题,建立两阶段多目标随机规划模型。该模型采用随机分层场景生成方法来应对源荷多重不确定性问题,通过ε约束法和Benders分解来处理多目标优化和容量运行协同规划问题。结果表明:建立的随机分层场景生成模型能更好地表征源荷多重不确定性;规划结果的可再生能源份额可达80%,净交互水平仅为20%,费用年值为1752万元,在实现高比例可再生能源消纳和提高系统独立性的同时具有较强的供需协同能力。此外,扩大可再生能源份额将降低系统的经济性能,而降低的经济性能可通过提高净交互水平来改善。In response to the multiple uncertainties of source and load,as well as the independent of capacity and operation programming in integrated energy system(IES),a two-stage multi-objective stochastic programming model is established.This model integrates the Latin Hypercube Sampling method and a scenario curtailment method based on Wasserstein distance to construct a stochastic hierarchy scenario generation model to address the multiple uncertainties of source and load.It handles multi-objective optimization and the collaborative programming of capacity and operation through theε-constraint method and Benders decomposition.The results show that the established stochastic hierarchy scenario generation model can better characterize the multiple uncertainties of source and load;the renewable energy share(RES)in the programming results can reach 80%,with only a 20%net interaction level(NIL),and an ATC of 17.52 million yuan.While achieving a high proportion of renewable energy consumption and enhancing system independence,it also possesses strong supply-demand collaborative capability.Moreover,increasing the RES will reduce the economic performance of the system,but the reduced economic performance can be mitigated by improving the NIL.

关 键 词：能源管理系统 随机规划 多目标优化 综合能源系统 Benders分解 协同规划 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]