基于系统动力学的城市交通安全韧性仿真研究  

Simulation Research on Urban Traffic Safety Resilience Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：李国兴 邓阳阳 刘占宁 李晓宇 张懿威 田睿 王铁成 LI Guoxing;DENG Yangyang;IU Zhanning;LI Xiaoyu;HANG Yiwei;TIAN Rui;WANG Tiecheng(School of Energy,Environment and Safety Engineering,China University of Weights and Measures,Hangzhou 310018,China;Anyang Institute of Technology,Anyang 455000,China;School of Resource Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学能源环境与安全工程学院,杭州310018 [2]安阳工学院飞行学院,河南安阳455000 [3]西安建筑科技大学资源工程学院,西安710055

出　　处：《安阳工学院学报》2025年第2期59-66,共8页Journal of Anyang Institute of Technology

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目(252102320045);安阳市科技计划项目(2023C01SF130、2023C01GX027);安阳工学院博士科研启动基金项目(BSJ2021003)。

摘　　要：对北京市交通安全韧性水平进行评估,从灾前预防、灾中抵抗、灾后恢复3个维度构建城市交通安全韧性评估模型,融合系统动力学与安全韧性理论,评估城市交通安全韧性水平,分析2013一2022年北京市交通安全韧性变化趋势并进行趋势预测。结果表明,北京市的交通安全韧性在前期提升较慢,在后期有显著提升,资金投入与道路等级直接影响城市交通安全韧性的发展趋势。在趋势预测方面,城市交通安全韧性有显著提升,发现城市交通安全韧性呈现前期缓、后期增的分布特征。基于以上结论,提出增强城市交通安全资金投入,大力发展城市道路建设,以进一步提升城市交通安全韧性。The traffic safety resilience level in Beijing is evaluated.An urban traffic safety resilience assessment model is constructed from three dimensions:pre-disaster prevention,disaster resistance during disasters,and post-disaster recovery.By integrating system dynamics and safety resilience theory,the urban traffic safety resilience level is assessed,and the changing trend of traffic safety resilience in Beijing from 2013 to 2022 is analyzed as well as the trend prediction.The findings indicate that Beijing's traffic safety resilience increased slowly in the initial phase and surged significantly in the subsequent period.Capital investment and road grade directly impact the development trend of urban traffic safety resilience.Regarding trend prediction,the urban traffic safety resilience has a remarkable increase,presenting a distribution feature of slow growth in the early stage and rapid growth in the later stage.Based on the above conclusions,some suggestions are proposed:enhancing the investment in urban traffic safety funds and vigorously promoting urban road construction will contribute to further enhancing the urban traffic safety resilience.

关 键 词：安全韧性 系统动力学 仿真 城市交通 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]