黄河九省(区)绿色低碳与数字经济耦合协调及障碍因子分析  

Analysis of the coupling coordination and obstacle factors between green low-carbon systems and digital economy in the nine provinces(autonomous regions)along the Yellow River

作　　者：王静 姜明月 赵林 WANG Jing;JIANG Mingyue;ZHAO Lin(Shandong Academy of Innovation and Development,Jinan 250101,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省创新发展研究院,山东济南250101

出　　处：《山东科学》2025年第2期89-99,共11页Shandong Science

基　　金：山东省社科规划研究专项(24BCXJ08)。

摘　　要：黄河流经的九省(区)是我国经济社会发展的重要支撑区域,其绿色低碳与数字经济的协同共进对我国实现“双碳”目标及经济高质量发展有着全局性的战略意义。以2013—2022年黄河九省(区)为研究对象,从资源消耗、污染排放、治理成效、通信能力、互联网普及程度、信息产业发展程度6个维度构建数字经济与绿色低碳系统评价指标体系,利用熵权法、耦合协调度模型、障碍度模型和灰度预测分析两者时空耦合关系及障碍因素。结果表明:黄河九省(区)绿色低碳水平有显著提升,整体趋势呈现“上游绿色低碳水平<下游绿色低碳水平<中游绿色低碳水平”的空间分布格局,数字经济系统评价指数存在区域间的不平衡,呈现出自上而下逐级递增的趋势。数字经济与绿色低碳系统耦合协调度整体呈现稳步上升的趋势,黄河九省(区)整体状态从濒临失调过度为初级协调状态。进一步分析发现,信息产业发展程度是耦合协调的主要障碍因素,黄河流域数字化信息产业发展不足严重制约数字经济与绿色低碳协调发展。通过灰度预测可知,2025—2029年黄河九省(区)的数字经济与绿色低碳系统耦合状态将稳步上升至中级协调水平。最后针对性的提出促进黄河九省(区)绿色低碳与数字经济耦合协调发展、推动其迈向更高发展阶段的建议,以期为该地区可持续发展提供科学依据和决策参考。∶The nine provinces(autonomous regions)along the Yellow River are important supporting regions for the economic and social development of China.The coordinated advancement of their green low-carbon and digital economies holds strategic significance for China to achieve its“dual-carbon”goals and high-quality economic development.Considering the nine provinces(autonomous regions)along the Yellow River from 2013 to 2022 as the research object,this study constructs an evaluation index system for the digital economy and green low-carbon systems from six dimensions:resource consumption,pollution emissions,governance effectiveness,communication capabilities,the Internet,and the information industry.The spatiotemporal coupling relationship and obstacle factors between the two were analyzed using entropy weight method,coupling coordination degree model,obstacle degree model,and gray prediction.The results demonstrated that the green low-carbon level of the nine provinces(autonomous regions)along the Yellow River has significantly improved,following a spatial pattern of“upper reaches green low-carbon level<lower reaches green low-carbon level<middle reaches green low-carbon level”.The evaluation indices of the digital economy systems exhibit regional imbalances,showing a gradually increasing trend from top to bottom.The coupling coordination degree of the digital economy and green low-carbon systems as a whole shows a steady upward trend,and the overall state of the nine provinces(autonomous regions)along the Yellow River has changed from being on the verge of disorder to an initially coordinated state.The information industry is the main obstacle to coupling coordination.The insufficient development of the digital information industry in the Yellow River Basin severely hinders the coordinated development of the digital economy and green low-carbon systems in these provinces(autonomous regions).Gray prediction analysis suggests that the coupling state of the digital economy and green low-carbon systems in the nin

关 键 词：黄河流域 绿色低碳 数字经济 耦合协调 障碍度 灰度预测 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224