增值税留抵退税、供应链传导与创新激励  

The Reform of Uncredited VAT Refund,Supply Chain Transmission and Innovation Incentives

作　　者：胡洪曙[1] 付俐 Hu Hongshu;Fu Li

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2025年第1期39-57,共19页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“减税降费影响财政可持续性的机制分析、效应评估与策略优化研究”(24BJY056)。

摘　　要：本文基于2012—2021年上市公司的供应商-客户数据,以2018年增值税留抵退税政策为准自然实验,采用双重差分法分析留抵退税政策是否在供应链层面存在创新溢出效应。研究发现,客户企业受留抵退税政策影响能够沿着供应链传导并显著驱动供应商企业开展研发创新活动,且这一结论在经历平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、Heckman两步法等一系列稳健性检验后仍成立。机制检验表明,客户企业受留抵退税政策激励主要通过资金溢出、倒逼效应以及人力资本升级影响供应商企业创新。异质性分析发现,当供应商企业是民营企业、中小规模企业以及客户端议价能力较强时,创新溢出效应更加显著。因此,既要继续加大留抵退税政策实施力度,又要完善财政金融协同联动机制。同时,加强企业间供应链合作以最大限度发挥产业链供应链对政策红利的放大作用。Based on supplier and customer data of China's listed enterprises from 2012 to 2021, this paper establishes a difference-in-differences(DID) model to empirically investigate innovation spillover effect at the supply chain level by taking the Uncredited Value-added Tax(VAT, hereafter) Refund Policy in 2018 as a “quasi-natural experiment”. The research fndings reveal that the impact of the Uncredited VAT Refund Policy on customer enterprises could diffuse along the supply chain and significantly promote supplier enterprises to innovate, and these conclusions remain robust even after a series of robustness tests such as parallel trend test,placebo test and Heckman two-step method. The mechanism analysis shows that the impact of the Uncredited VAT Refund Policy on the customer enterprises signifcantly promotes supplier enterprises innovation by capital spillover effects, pushback effects and human capital upgrading. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the spillover efect of the Uncredited VAT Refund Policy is more signifcant for supplier enterprises with nonstate-owned nature, small and medium-sized, and for customer enterprises with strong bargaining power.Therefore, government departments should continue to deepen the reform of Uncredited VAT Refund and promote coordination between fscal and fnancial policy. At the same time, strengthening supply chain cooperation among enterprises to maximize the amplifcation efect of industrial chain and supply chain on policy dividends.

关 键 词：增值税留抵退税 供应链 溢出效应 创新激励 

分 类 号：F810.42[经济管理—财政学]