个人养老金税收优惠政策的优化与模拟  

Optimization and Simulation of Tax Incentives for Personal Pension

作　　者：刘柏惠[1] 寇恩惠 陈朝阳 Liu Baihui;Kou Enhui;Chen Chaoyang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]中央财经大学财政税务学院 [3]江苏省财政厅

出　　处：《财政研究》2025年第1期79-92,共14页Public Finance Research

基　　金：中国社会科学院重大创新项目“深化财税体制改革的重大问题研究”(2024YZD007)。

摘　　要：我国个人养老金制度在推进过程中面临账户“开而不缴”等难题,其税收优惠政策的合理性备受关注。本文总结理论研究进展,引入税收抵免和负所得税构建优化方案,利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,使用UL方法分析各方案的收入分配效果,结合实施成本得到最优改革路径。结果显示,现行方案在垂直效应、水平效应和再排序效应三个方面均会对收入分配产生负面影响,垂直效应起主导作用;与之相比,不返还的税收抵免方案能改善垂直效应,从而减少收入差距扩大的程度,且政策成本更低;可返还的税收抵免方案能通过同时优化垂直公平和水平公平使再分配效应由负转正,并使其实现大幅跃升;负所得税方案的再分配效应稍逊于可返还的税收抵免方案,但政策成本较低、对水平公平的改进程度不受影响。基于此,提出对个人养老金税收优惠政策的改进路径:短期宜采用更具成本效益的不返还的税收抵免政策;中长期可根据政策目标和客观条件在可返还的税收抵免方案和负所得税方案之间进行权衡;基于经济社会参数建立个人养老金税收优惠评价机制,精准确定改革时机和优惠幅度的阈值。In the process of promoting individual pension system in China, there are difculties such as “opening accounts but not saving”, and the rationality of its tax incentive policies has attracted much attention. This paper summarizes the progress of theoretical research and introduces tax credits and negative income tax to construct optimization schemes, using the data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS) and the UL method, the income distribution effects of each scheme are analyzed, and the optimal reform path is derived combaining implementation costs. The results show that the current scheme has negative effects on income distribution in three aspects: vertical efects, horizontal efects, and re-ranking efects, with vertical efects playing a dominant role. In contrast, the non-refundable tax credit scheme can reduce the widening of income inequality by improving vertical efects, with lower policy costs. The refundable tax credit scheme can signifcantly enhance redistribution by simultaneously optimizing both vertical and horizontal equity, turning the redistribution efect from negative to positive. The negative income tax scheme has a slightly weaker redistribution efect than the refundable tax credit scheme but involves lower policy costs and maintains improvements in horizontal equity. Based on these fndings, the following paths for improving the tax incentive policy for personal pensions are proposed: First, in the short term, a more cost-efective non-refundable tax credit policy should be adopted. Second, in the medium and long term, a balance can be struck between the refundable tax credit scheme and the negative income tax scheme, depending on policy objectives and conditions. Third, an evaluation mechanism for personal pension tax incentives should be established based on economic and social parameters to accurately determine the timing for reform and the threshold for the scale of benefts.

关 键 词：个人养老金 税收优惠 UL模型 收入分配 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险] F812.42