广东省气温与动物伤害发生的关联研究  

Study on the association between temperature and the risk of injuries by animals in Guangdong Province

作　　者：曾卫权 许燕君[2] 郑阿呷 胡建雄 方远 郭猛恩 梁可晴 叶尚珲 朱启炯 何冠豪 刘涛[1] 孟瑞琳[2] 马文军 Zeng Weiquan;Xu Yanjun;Zheng Aga;Hu Jianxiong;Fang Yuan;Guo Mengen;Liang Keqing;Ye Shanghui;Zhu Qijiong;He Guanhao;Liu Tao;Meng Ruilin;Ma Wenjun(Department of Preventive Medicine,School of Medicine,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China;Institute of Control and Prevention for Chronic Non-infective Disease,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学基础医学与公共卫生学院预防医学系,广州510632 [2]广东省疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制所,广州511430

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2025年第4期587-595,共9页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42075173,42275187);中国科协青年科学家资助计划(2022QNRC001)。

摘　　要：目的评估气温与动物伤害发生的关联,明确脆弱人群。方法基于时间分层病例交叉设计,纳入广东省伤害监测系统医院2011、2015-2016年共监测到的动物伤害发生数,每日气象数据来源于欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代陆面再分析数据集。采用条件logistic回归嵌合分布滞后非线性模型分析气温与动物伤害发生的关联,并按照地区、性别、年龄、职业和伤害发生地点进行分层分析。结果气温与动物伤害发生之间呈近似线性关系。气温每升高1℃,动物伤害发生的超额风险(ER)值为2.65%(95%CI:2.27%~3.04%),其中非哺乳动物伤害发生风险(ER=9.34%,95%CI:7.57%~11.13%)高于哺乳动物伤害(ER=2.30%,95%CI:1.90%~2.70%)。分层分析显示,城市(ER=2.78%,95%CI:2.35%~3.21%)、女性(ER=2.71%,95%CI:2.16%~3.27%)、≥60岁老年人(ER=3.05%,95%CI:1.65%~4.47%)、农民(ER=4.66%,95%CI:3.03%~6.32%)、农业场所(ER=10.63%,95%CI:7.57%~13.79%)的动物伤害发生更容易受到气温影响。对于哺乳动物伤害,狗咬伤受到气温的影响最大(ER=2.71%,95%CI:2.12%~3.30%),而对于非哺乳动物伤害,气温对蛇咬伤的影响最大(ER=16.74%,95%CI:11.33%~22.40%)。结论环境气温上升与动物伤害发生风险增加有关,其中非哺乳动物伤害发生与气温的关联远大于哺乳动物伤害,研究结果提示全球气候变暖可能增加动物伤害发生的风险和疾病负担。Objective To assess the association between temperature and risk of animal injury,and identifying vulnerable populations.Methods Based on a time-stratified case-crossover design,the number of animal injuries monitored in hospitals of Guangdong Provincial Injury Surveillance System in 2011 and 2015-2016 was included,and the daily meteorological data were derived from the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis-Land,which was produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Conditional logistic regression combined with a distributed lagged nonlinear model was applied to analyze the association of temperature and animal-specific injuries.We also conducted stratified analysis by region,sex,age,occupation,and location of injury occurrence.Results There was an almost linear relationship between temperature and the occurrence of animal injury.The excess risk(ER)of animal injury was 2.65%(95%CI:2.27%-3.04%)for a 1℃rise in temperature with much higher risk of occurrence(ER=9.34%,95%CI:7.57%-11.13%)for non-mammalian injury than that for mammalian injuries(ER=2.30%,95%CI:1.90%-2.70%).Stratified analysis revealed that the occurrence of animal injury was more susceptible to temperature influences in urban(ER=2.78%,95%CI:2.35%-3.21%),female(ER=2.71%,95%CI:2.16%-3.27%),the elderly aged 60 years and above(ER=3.05%,95%CI:1.65%-4.47%),farmer(ER=4.66%,95%CI:3.03%-6.32%)and agricultural area(ER=10.63%,95%CI:7.57%-13.79%)than their correspondents.In terms of mammalian injury,dog bites showed the highest risk(ER=2.71%,95%CI:2.12%-3.30%).In terms of non-mammalian,snake injuries were highly influenced by temperature(ER=16.74%,95%CI:11.33%-22.40%).Conclusions The ambient temperature rises could increase the risk of animal injury with much higher risk for non-mammalian than that for mammalian injuries.Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the risk and disease burden from animal injuries.

关 键 词：动物伤害 气温 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]