降水对浙江省道路交通伤害的影响与疾病负担研究  

Study on the effect and burden of precipitation on road traffic injuries in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：郭丽花[1] 曾卫权 马文军 赵鸣[1] 胡建雄 李娜[1] 钟节鸣[1] 林静静 Guo Lihua;Zeng Weiquan;Ma Wenjun;Zhao Ming;Hu Jianxiong;Li Na;Zhong Jieming;Lin Jingjing(Department of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control,Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou 310051,China;Department of Preventive Medicine,School of Medicine,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制所,杭州310051 [2]暨南大学基础医学与公共卫生学院预防医学系,广州510632

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2025年第4期605-611,共7页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：浙江省疾病预防控制科技计划(2025JK148)。

摘　　要：目的分析降水对浙江省道路交通伤害的影响。方法使用2009-2022年浙江省道路交通伤害监测数据和气象数据,基于时间分层病例交叉设计,结合分布滞后非线性模型,分析降水量与交通伤害的关联,分层分析性别、年龄、伤害发生地点和气温的效应修饰作用。采用归因分值评估降水造成的交通伤害疾病负担。结果2009-2022年浙江省共监测到239970例交通伤害病例,平均每日46例。与未降水相比,交通伤害风险随着降水量的增加先升高后降低,降水量为30.99 mm时,交通伤害发生风险最大(OR=1.08,95%CI:1.05~1.11)。降水对交通伤害发生的不利影响主要体现在降水当天,随着滞后天数的延长,其效应不显著或出现保护效应。1.34%(95%CI:1.31%~1.36%)交通伤害事件的发生可归因于降水。分层分析结果显示,性别、年龄、伤害发生地点、气温可能会修饰降水量对交通伤害的风险,降水在18~64岁和女性群体中、在公路和低气温时的交通伤害疾病负担更重。结论降水可引起交通伤害风险增加,18~64岁、女性群体是交通伤害防范的重点人群,公路、低气温环境下的降水相关的交通伤害防控力度要加大。Objective To analyze the effect of precipitation on road traffic injuries(RTI)in Zhejiang Province.Methods The RTI surveillance and meteorological data from 2009 to 2022 in Zhejiang Province were collected.Based on the time-stratified case-crossover design,the precipitation of case day and control day was compared,and the distributed lag nonlinear model was applied to analyze the correlation of precipitation and RTI.Stratified analyses were conducted to analyze the effect modification of gender,age,injury location,and temperature.An attributable fraction was used to assess the burden of RTI caused by precipitation.Results A total of 239970 RTIs were monitored in Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2022,averaging 46 daily cases.The distributed lag nonlinear model showed that compared with no rain,the risk of RTI increased first and then decreased with the increase of precipitation.The risk of RTI was the highest when the precipitation was 30.99 mm(OR=1.08,95%CI:1.05-1.11).The adverse effects on RTI mainly occurred on the day of precipitation,and it showed insignificant or protective effects with the extension of lag days.1.34%(95%CI:1.31%-1.36%)of RTI could be attributed to precipitation.Stratified analysis showed that gender,age,injury location,and temperature may modify the effect of precipitation on RTI.Precipitation caused a heavier burden on RTI in subgroups aged 18-64,females,and occurring on roads and in low temperatures.Conclusions Precipitation can increase the risk of RTI.People aged 18-64 or females are the key groups for RTI prevention,and prevention and control efforts of precipitation-related RTI should be increased in road and low-temperature environments.

关 键 词：降水 交通伤害 病例交叉研究 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]