2011-2021监测年度中国流感相关就诊负担估计  

Burden of influenza-associated consultations in China from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years

作　　者：申雨欣 彭质斌[1] 秦颖[1] 喻晓颖 苏日娜 王清漪 郑建东[1] 赵宏婷 杨孝坤 张彦平[1] Shen Yuxin;Peng Zhibin;Qin Ying;Yu Xiaoying;Su Rina;Wang Qingyi;Zheng Jiandong;Zhao Hongting;Yang Xiaokun;Zhang Yanping(National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Disease,Division of Infectious Diseases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,中国疾病预防控制中心传染病管理处,北京102206

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2025年第4期612-618,共7页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：公共卫生应急反应机制运行项目;中美疾控中心合作项目。

摘　　要：目的估计2011-2021监测年度我国流感相关门/急诊就诊负担,为制定我国流感防控和疫苗接种策略提供参考。方法收集2011-2021监测年度我国国家级流感监测哨点医院的流感样病例(ILI)监测和病原学监测数据,并考虑季节基线和部分气象因素,利用广义相加模型估计我国流感相关ILI超额门/急诊就诊率。结果2011-2021监测年度,我国平均流感相关ILI超额门/急诊就诊率为1.66(95%CI:1.51~1.80)/1000人年。各型别/亚型流感病毒导致的流感相关就诊负担较为接近,其中A(H1N1)pdm09亚型流感病毒造成的平均流感相关ILI超额门/急诊就诊率[0.65(95%CI:0.53~0.76)/1000人年]略高于其他型别/亚型流感病毒。0~4岁和5~14岁儿童中的流感相关就诊负担最重,平均流感相关ILI超额门/急诊就诊率分别为15.23(95%CI:13.73~16.73)/1000人年和13.53(95%CI:12.49~14.52)/1000人年。结论流感的流行在我国造成了较高的超额就诊负担,尤其是在0~14岁儿童中。未来应持续开展流感监测和疾病负担评价,密切关注各型别/亚型流感病毒的流行趋势变化,在制定疫苗接种策略时,应优先推荐儿童等高风险人群接种。Objective To estimate the burden of influenza-associated outpatient consultations in China from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years to provide a reference for developing influenza prevention,control strategies,and vaccination policies.Methods Data on influenza-like illness(ILI)and virological confirmation of sentinel specimens from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years were extracted from China's national sentinel surveillance system.Generalized additive models were fitted to estimate influenza-associated excess ILI outpatient burden,accounting for seasonal baselines and meteorological factors.Results Influenza was associated with an average of 1.66(95%CI:1.51-1.80)excess ILI consultations per 1000 person-years(py)in China each year from 2011 to 2021 surveillance years.The influenza-associated outpatient burden was similar across different virus types/subtypes.Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 led to a higher rate of influenzaassociated ILI consultations[0.65(95%CI:0.53-0.76)per 1000 py]compared to other types/subtypes.The age groups with the highest burdens were children aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years,with excess outpatient consultation rates of 15.23(95%CI:13.73-16.73)per 1000 py and 13.53(95%CI:12.49-14.52)per 1000 py,respectively.Conclusions Influenza caused many outpatient consultations in China,particularly among children aged 0-14.Continuous influenza monitoring and disease burden assessment should be conducted,and close attention should be paid to the changing trends of various influenza virus types/subtypes.When formulating vaccination strategies,priority should be given to recommending vaccination for high-risk populations,such as children.

关 键 词：流感 疾病负担 流感样病例 监测 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]