贸易数字化与企业出口关系可持续——基于供需匹配的视角  

Trade Digitization and Sustainability of Export Relationships——From the Perspective of Supply-demand Matching

作　　者：余号 殷凤[2] YU Hao;YIN Feng

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院中国国际经济交流中心上海分中心 [2]上海大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2025年第4期37-55,共19页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“全球价值链、国际贸易政策体系‘双重构’的影响与应对研究”(22JZD041);上海市哲学社会科学规划“研究阐释党的二十届三中全会精神”专项课题“上海在制度型开放中的龙头带动和示范引领作用研究”(2024VQH049);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“复杂网络视角下中国全球产业链网络节点地位测度与提升对策研究”(22YJA790080)。

摘　　要：本文在异质性企业贸易理论框架下,从供需匹配的视角考察了贸易数字化对企业出口关系可持续的影响,根据2002—2015年我国企业使用数字平台的情况测度了贸易数字化水平,运用离散时间生存分析模型实证检验了贸易数字化能否以及如何促进出口关系可持续。研究发现,贸易数字化能够降低企业出口关系失败的风险,从而实现出口关系可持续,经过一系列稳健性检验和内生性问题讨论后,该结论依旧稳健。异质性分析表明,企业越年轻、所处行业竞争程度越高,以及民营企业、中西部企业、出口低技术产品的企业越能够通过贸易数字化实现出口关系可持续;特别是当生产率短期内难以提升时,企业更应该提高贸易数字化水平,以获得出口关系可持续。机制检验表明,贸易数字化可通过优化供需匹配降低企业出口关系失败的风险,在考虑时间敏感产品和多层面出口关系后,再次验证了这一影响机制;当贸易数字化企业出口到经济发展水平越高、需求层次越丰富或差异化产品分布越广泛的市场时,越能够获得出口关系可持续。本文为企业如何进一步把握贸易数字化趋势、创新发展数字贸易以及稳定出口关系,提供了重要的决策依据。Under the framework of heterogeneous firm trade theory,this paper investigates the impact of trade digitization on the sustainability of corporate export relationships from the perspective of supply-demand matching.Based on the usage of digital platforms by Chinese enterprises from 2002 to 2015,we measure the level of trade digitization and employ a discrete-time survival analysis model to empirically test whether and how trade digitization promotes the sustainability of export relationships.The findings reveal that trade digitization significantly reduces the risk of export relationship failure,thereby enhancing their sustainability.This conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness checks and endogeneity tests.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the benefits of trade digitization are more pronounced for younger firms,those operating in highly competitive industries,privately owned enterprises,firms located in central and western China,and exporters of low-tech products.Particularly when productivity improvements are difficult to achieve in the short term,firms should prioritize enhancing their trade digitization capabilities to secure the sustainability of their export relationships.Mechanism tests demonstrate that trade digitization reduces the risk of export relationship failure by optimizing supplydemand matching,a result further validated when considering time-sensitive products and multi-layered export relationships.Additionally,firms with higher levels of trade digitization are more likely to achieve sustainable export relationships when exporting to markets with higher levels of economic development,richer demand hierarchies,or a broader distribution of differentiated products.This paper provides critical decision-making insights for firms to better leverage the trend of trade digitization,innovate in digital trade practices,and stabilize their export relationships.

关 键 词：出口关系可持续 贸易数字化 数字平台 供需匹配 数字贸易 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]