汇率冲击、国际收支韧性与外贸高质量发展  

Exchange Rate Shocks,Balance of Payments Resilience and High-quality Development of Foreign Trade

作　　者：金成晓[1] 孙萌晨 JIN Chengxiao;SUN Mengchen

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学商学与管理学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《学习与实践》2025年第4期76-88,共13页Study and Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下中国经济韧性的形成机理、动态评价与政策协同研究”(项目编号:21&ZD073)。

摘　　要：外贸高质量发展是推进高水平对外开放的重要组成部分。基于时变脉冲响应值测度国际收支韧性,运用混频向量自回归模型分析汇率及其波动、国际收支韧性对外贸高质量发展的动态影响。研究发现,我国国际收支风险吸收强度自2008年后波动上升,国际收支风险吸收持续期有所回升,国际收支韧性总体稳定。人民币升值改变贸易品价格,对外贸高质量发展存在直接负向影响,但通过降低市场风险吸收持续期,能够间接对外贸高质量发展产生正向效应。汇率波动有利于外贸高质量发展,市场风险吸收持续期和国际收支风险吸收强度的间接渠道也发挥积极影响,而风险吸收持续期的降低有利于贸易结构优化升级。因此,应增强国际收支韧性,缓解汇率冲击的不利影响,通过适度的汇率波动和国际收支韧性调节机制,推动贸易结构优化升级。The high-quality development of foreign trade constitutes a crucial component in advancing China's high-level opening-up.This study measures the balance of payments resilience through time-varying impulse response values and employs a mixed-frequency vector autoregression model to analyze the dynamic effects of exchange rate,exchange rate volatility,and balance of payments resilience on the high-quality development of foreign trade.The findings reveal that,the risk absorption intensity of balance of payments has exhibited a fluctuating upward trend since 2008,while the risk absorption duration of balance of payments has rebounded,indicating overall stability in balance of payments resilience.The appreciation of the RMB alters the pricing of tradable goods,which is found to exert a direct negative effect on the high-quality development of foreign trade.However,by reducing the market risk-based absorption duration of the balance of payments,it indirectly generates a positive effect on the high-quality development of foreign trade.Increased exchange rate volatility promotes the high-quality development of foreign trade,with both the risk absorption intensity of balance of payments and the market risk-based absorption duration serving as indirect channels that positively contribute to this process.Specifically,the reduction of risk absorption duration facilitates the optimization and upgrading of trade structure.Therefore,it is essential to enhance balance of payments resilience,mitigate the negative effects of exchange rate shocks,and leverage moderate exchange rate volatility and adjustment mechanisms based on balance of payments resilience to facilitate optimization and upgrading of trade structure.

关 键 词：汇率水平 汇率波动 国际收支韧性 外贸高质量发展 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F832.6[经济管理—产业经济]