地缘政治变局下哈萨克斯坦“新政”与中哈关系战略意涵  

The Strategic Implications of Kazakhstan's"New Deal"under Geopolitical Upheaval for China-Kazakhstan Relations

作　　者：吴喜 Wu Xi(Southwest University of Political Science and Law,Chongqing 401120,China;Yili Normal University,Yining 835000,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]西南政法大学,重庆401120 [2]伊犁师范大学,新疆伊宁835000

出　　处：《伊犁师范大学学报》2025年第1期1-10,F0002,共11页Journal of Yili Normal University

基　　金：2024年度国家民委“一带一路”国别和区域研究中心伊犁师范大学哈萨克斯坦研究中心开放课题“区域国别学(中亚方向)文献资源的整合与建设”(2024XJPTYB001)。

摘　　要：2022年哈萨克斯坦“一月事件”后,托卡耶夫政府启动以“政治稳定优先”为导向的深度改革,旨在重构国家治理体系。核心举措包括限制总统权力集中化、强化议会监督职能、推动地方自治赋权,并通过反腐败斗争与数字化治理提升制度效能,标志着该国从“超级总统制”向“均衡分权”模式的转型。然而,改革面临旧权力结构的惯性阻力(如纳扎尔巴耶夫家族残余影响)与外部地缘博弈(美俄竞争、西方资本渗透)的双重挑战。哈萨克斯坦“新政”不仅是中亚地缘政治变局的关键变量,亦为“一带一路”倡议在中亚的实践提供制度适配经验,其成败将深刻影响区域稳定与中国西部边疆安全。在此背景下,中哈关系需以战略互信为基础,深化经贸合作,共同维护双边关系稳定发展,共同推进“一带一路”建设,促进区域一体化与共同繁荣。Following the"January Events"of 2022 in Kazakhstan,the Tokayev government initiated in-depth reforms under the guiding principle of"political stability first",aimed at restructuring the national governance system.Key measures include limiting the centralization of presidential powers,strengthening parliamentary oversight,empowering local self-governance,and enhancing institutional efficiency through anti-corruption campaigns and digital governance.These reforms mark a transition from a"super-presidential system"to a"balanced power-sharing"model.However,the reforms face dual challenges:inertial resistance from entrenched power structures(such as residual influence from the Nazarbayev family)and external geopolitical maneuvering(U.S.-Russia rivalry and Western capital penetration).Kazakhstan's"New Deal"is not only a critical variable in Central Asia's geopolitical shifts but also provides institutional adaptation experience for the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)in the region.Its success or failure will profoundly impact regional stability and China's western border security.Against this backdrop,China-Kazakhstan relations must be built on strategic mutual trust,deepening economic and trade cooperation to ensure stable bilateral development,jointly advancing the BRI,and promoting regional integration and shared prosperity.

关 键 词：哈萨克斯坦 政治改革 地缘政治 “一带一路” 中哈合作 

分 类 号：D822.336.1[政治法律—政治学]