温州地区高强度短时强降水概念模型及预报指标研究  

Study on the Conceptual Model and Forecast Indicators of High-Intensity Short-Time Heavy Rainfall in Wenzhou

作　　者：马倩 张成虎 范亮 王潇雅 周洁雯 Ma Qian;Zhang Chenghu;Fan Liang;Wang Xiaoya;Zhou Jiewen(Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau,Wenzhou 325000,Zhejiang,China;Wenzhou Key Laboratory of Typhoon Monitoring and Forecasting Technology,Wenzhou 325000,Zhejiang,China;Wenzhou Meteorological Academician Workstation,Wenzhou 325000,Zhejiang,China;Taishun District Meteorological Bureau,Wenzhou 325000,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]温州市气象局,浙江温州325000 [2]温州市台风监测预报技术重点实验室,浙江温州325000 [3]温州市气象台院士工作站,浙江温州325000 [4]温州市泰顺县气象局,浙江温州325000

出　　处：《科技通报》2025年第4期10-19,111,共11页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省气象局青年项目(2022QN26)。

摘　　要：在全球持续变暖的背景下,极端降水事件频发,严重影响社会经济发展和人民的生产生活。本文利用2010—2021年温州市基准气象站和自动气象站逐小时降水的观测资料,建立温州地区非台风引起的短时超强降水个例库;基于“配料法”对其进行中尺度分析,建立温州地区短时强降水预报概念模型,得出适用于温州地区的高强度短时强降水预报指标。研究表明:2010—2021年,温州地区共发生99次非台风引起的高强度短时强降水过程;选取的极端降水个例中,天气形势配置有高空冷平流强迫类、低层暖平流强迫类、斜压锋生类和准正压类四种类型,其中准正压类占比最大,占比达74%;极端降水个例均发生在高空有显著分流区,低空有明显切变线或西南急流的环境中;对流指数中,对流有效位能和抬升指数具有较强的指示意义。在强降水发生前,对流有效位能存在高值中心,抬升指数存在低值中心,且高值中心(或低值中心)与短时强降水对应最好的时次是在强降水发生前1~2 h。In the context of global warming,extreme precipitation events are becoming increasingly frequent,significantly impacting socio-economic development and people's daily lives.Using hourly precipitation data from conventional observations and regional automatic weather stations in Wenzhou from 2010 to 2021,a database of nontyphoon-related extremely short duration heavy rainfall events was established.The analysis of mesoscale characteristics was based on the "Ingredients" approach.A conceptual model and forecast index for high-intensity,short-duration heavy rainfall in Wenzhou were developed.The results indicated that from 2010 to 2021,99 non-typhoon-induced high-intensity short duration heavy precipitation events occurred in Wenzhou.The selected extreme precipitation cases were classified into four types of forecast conceptual models:cold advection forcing category,warm advection forcing category,baroclinic frontogenesis category,and quasi-barotropic category,with the latter being predominant(74% of cases).All extreme precipitation events occurred in environments characterized by significant upper-level divergence and either a low-level shear line or southwest jet.In the convective indices,both convective available potential energy(CAPE) and lifted index(LI) have significant indicative value.Prior to heavy rainfall events,CAPE tends to show a high-value center,while LI exhibits a low-value center.Moreover,the optimal correspondence between these centers and the short-duration heavy precipitation center was observed 1-2 hours before the onset of heavy precipitation.

关 键 词：短时强降水 配料法 概念模型 预报指标 温州 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]