出口退税对内销的削减效应--基于产出调整能力与客户粘性的视角  

The Reduction Effect of Export Tax Rebates on Domestic Sales:From the Perspectives of Output Adjustment Capacity and Customer Stickiness

作　　者：包群[1] 谢幼木 但佳丽 Bao Qun;Xie Youmu;Dan Jiali(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《财经研究》2025年第1期109-123,共15页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA054);国家自然科学基金项目(72403134);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(63242108);国家资助博士后研究人员计划(GZB20230318)。

摘　　要：现有研究普遍认为出口退税政策有力地促进了企业出口增长,然而这一政策的效果是否以企业国内销售的下降为代价却较少受到关注。文章基于2004—2015年细致的客户—供应商匹配数据,考察了出口退税政策对上市公司客户分布的影响。研究发现:(1)出口退税政策在促进企业出口的同时,显著降低了企业在国内市场的销售收入;(2)出口对内销的替代关键取决于企业产出调整能力与客户关系粘性这两类重要机制,企业产出调整能力越低,与境内客户粘性越小,出口退税政策对境内客户销售的替代作用就越大;(3)上游行业出口退税率提高将导致下游企业对国内供应商的采购量减少且趋向集中,同时上游行业出口退税政策的不确定性使得下游企业的供应商采购更为分散。因此,需要谨慎评估出口退税政策可能对内销尤其是下游企业采购的潜在负面影响,以更好地协调与平衡贸易政策对国内市场需求与企业生产组织带来的潜在冲击。As a widely used trade promotion policy,the export tax rebate policy strongly contributes to export prosperity.However,does it also inevitably reduce domestic demand?Obviously,splitting the decisions of exports and domestic sales makes it difficult to clearly examine the real impact of the export tax rebate policy.More importantly,if upstream domestic firms choose to export under the stimulus of the export tax rebate policy,this will make it more difficult for downstream domestic customers to obtain the necessary supply of inputs timely,which will bring a negative impact on the production and operation activities of downstream domestic customers.Based on the customer-supplier data from 2004 to 2015,this paper examines the impact of the export tax rebate policy on the customer distribution of listed companies.The results show that:This policy significantly reduces the sales revenue of firms in the domestic market while promoting their exports.The substitution of exports for domestic sales depends critically on firms’output adjustment capacity and customer stickiness.The increase in the export tax rebate rate of upstream industries will lead to a decrease and concentration of downstream firms’purchase from domestic suppliers,and the uncertainty of export tax rebates in upstream industries will make downstream firms’purchase from suppliers more dispersed.This paper has the following contributions:(1)It reminds us that sustained and stable economic growth requires an effective balance between the demands of domestic and foreign markets,and export prosperity cannot be achieved at the expense of the shrinking of the domestic market.(2)It emphasizes the importance of output adjustment capacity and customer stickiness,which is conducive to a more comprehensive understanding on the intrinsic relationship and substitution principle between exports and domestic sales.(3)It supports that the export tax rebate policy,as a foreign trade policy,will continuously impact and spread through the domestic trade network.This me

关 键 词：出口退税 内销 国内商业网络 上下游商业关联 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易]