土地财政对地方财政运行的影响机制与效应研究  

The Impact of Land Finance on Local Financial Sustainability:A Study of Mechanism and Effect

作　　者：肖鹏 穆沛雨 XIAO Peng;MU Peiyu

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2025年第4期92-111,共20页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学创新团队“财政基础理论与财政改革研究创新团队”。

摘　　要：在经济下行、财政紧平衡的背景下,财政可持续性成为社会各界高度关注的热点问题,土地财政作为地方政府获取财政资金的重要手段,一方面拓展了地方政府收入来源,另一方面也加剧了地方财政潜在的风险。笔者以2011—2021年地市级数据为样本,探究土地财政对地方财政可持续性的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,地方政府的土地财政会对财政可持续性产生显著的促进作用,且能够从人口规模和基础设施建设两方面影响地方财政可持续性,这一影响在区位和人口因素上也呈现异质性。笔者认为,地方政府出让土地应当综合考虑居民生活、人口政策、城市建设等多方面问题,使土地出让与地区的经济发展方向以及城市建设规划相适应,实现获得财政收入和推动城市发展一举两得的政策效果。In the current climate of economic slowdown and tight fiscal balances,the topic of fiscal sustainability has captured the attention of society at large.Land finance,a crucial revenue-generating mechanism for local governments,presents a double-edged sword.While it broadens local revenue streams,it concomitantly heightens potential fiscal risks.This study utilizes prefecture-level city data from 2011 to 2021 to investigate the impact of land finance on local fiscal sustainability and its underlying mechanisms.The findings reveal that land finance significantly contributes to fiscal sustainability,exerting its influence through two key channels:population size and infrastructure development.Moreover,the impact varies across different locations and population demographics.The author contends that when engaging in land transfer,local governments must holistically account for aspects such as residents'livelihoods,population policies,and urban construction.This approach ensures that land transfer aligns with regional economic development strategies and urban planning,thereby achieving a win-win scenario of augmenting fiscal revenue and driving urban growth.

关 键 词：财政可持续 土地财政 人口规模 城市建设 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]