基于SEIRS模型的川渝地区天然气产业链风险传递与仿真研究  

Simulation on the risk transmission in natural-gas industrial chain of Sichuan and Chongqing areas based on SEIRS model

作　　者：刘波[1] 孙孝文 LIU Bo;SUN Xiaowen(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2025年第2期44-52,68,共10页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

基　　金：2023年度四川省哲学社会科学基金项目“川渝地区能源供应链稳定性和竞争力提升研究”(项目编号:SCJJ23ND153)。

摘　　要：随着“双碳”目标的提出,可再生资源、天然气等低碳能源将成为未来能源发展的主流。为了探究川渝地区天然气产业链风险传递的内在规律,对川渝地区天然气产业现状及其风险传递问题进行了分析与探讨。在此基础上,研究构建了适用于川渝地区天然气产业链风险传播的SEIRS(易感-潜伏-传染性-免疫-易感)模型,利用Matlab软件分析其阈值对川渝地区天然气产业链风险传递过程的影响,并对其阈值的因素影响效果进行仿真分析,进而提出了天然气产业链风险管控工作的政策建议。研究结果表明:①川渝地区天然气产业链风险传递过程中存在阈值,阈值受到传染率、直接免疫率、治愈率、免疫退化率多个参数的影响;②川渝地区天然气风险传递可以通过人为干预进行管控,面对突发风险问题时,需要做好事前、事中和事后全过程控制;③合理的风险分散和应急响应机制能够提高川渝地区天然气产业链抗风险能力。结论认为,该SEIRS模型可为川渝地区制定天然气供应安全稳定政策体系提供参考。Low-carbon energy,for example renewable resources and natural gas,will serve as the major force in its future development with the proposed dual-carbon goal(including carbon peak and carbon neutrality).Thus,taken the natural-gas industry in Sichuan and Chongqing areas as an example,the industrial current status was analyzed and problems in risk transmission were discussed in an effort to find out an inherent law on this transmission in these two areas.With that,a susceptible,exposed,infected,recovered,and susceptible(SEIRS)model which is suitable for the risk transmission has been developed.Then,the impact of its threshold on the transmission was analyzed by means of Matlab software,and the effect of threshold factors was simulated.Finally,some policy suggestions on risk control were made.Results show that(i)because of infection rate,direct immunity rate,cure rate,and immune degeneration rate,there exists a threshold in this risk transmission;(ii)the transmission may be conditioned through human intervention.It is essential to implement whole process control involving before,during,and after the event in the case of sudden risks;and(iii)fair risk diversification and emergency response mechanisms may improve the ability to withstand risks in the natural-gas industrial chain.In conclusion,this SEIRS model can provide reference for formulating the policy system for safe and smooth gas supply in Sichuan and Chongqing areas.

关 键 词：川渝地区 天然气产业链 SEIRS传播模型 风险传递 仿真分析 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]