基于AHP-熵值法的天然气系统韧性评价方法  

An approach to estimate the ductility in natural-gas system based on AHP-entropy method

作　　者：朱淑艳 侯磊[1,2] 王敏聪 许子聪 ZHU Shuyan;HOU Lei;WANG Mincong;XU Zicong(College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China;National Energy Underground Gas Storage Research and Development Center,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院,北京102249 [2]国家能源地下储气库研发中心中国石油大学(北京)分中心,北京102249

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2025年第2期53-61,共9页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

基　　金：中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目“我国油气供应系统韧性与安全战略研究”(编号:2023-XZ-72)。

摘　　要：随着全球能源转型加速和气候变化加剧,天然气作为一种相对清洁的低碳能源,对保障我国能源供应安全和优化能源结构具有重要意义,但地缘冲突、价格波动和环境挑战等不确定性因素严重威胁天然气系统的稳定性和恢复能力。为此,从资源、政治、经济和环境四个维度出发,构建了涵盖天然气产供储销各环节指标的韧性评价体系,建立了相应的评价模型,提出了提升天然气系统韧性的对策。研究结果表明:①AHP-熵值法量化了外部风险、国内政策和产供储销等多因素对天然气系统韧性的影响,2022年我国天然气系统韧性指数为0.46876,政治稳定与非暴力指数和政府效率对韧性影响最大,地下储气库储备量和产量次之;②从时间尺度上看,天然气系统韧性持续增强,随着我国天然气供应呈多元化态势、国内储气库建设不断加快,天然气系统抗风险能力和恢复能力具有较大提升;③加强天然气进口渠道多元化发展,降低地缘政治矛盾对我国天然气系统影响程度,完善天然气系统应急机制与产供储销基础设施建设,是当前提升我国天然气韧性水平与防范化解重大风险能力的关键举措。结论认为,该评价方法能够为天然气系统管理和优化提供科学依据与现实指导。As a sort of cleaner energy resources,natural gas is of great significance for ensuring energy supply security in China and optimizing domestic energy structure with the accelerated structure transition and intensified climate changes on the globe.However,three uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts,price fluctuation and environmental challenges severely threaten both stability and ductility in natural-gas system.Therefore,an estimation method which covers various indicators of gas production,supply,storage and sales was constructed for the ductility in terms of four kinds of dimension in resources,politics,economy and environment.And corresponding estimation models were also established.In addition,some measures were made to promote this ductility.Results show that(i)both analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy method can quantify the impact of multiple factors(e.g.external risks,domestic policies,and production,supply,storage and sales)on the ductility.The ductility index was 0.46876 in 2022.In which political stability,nonviolence index and government efficiency exerted the greatest impact,followed by both capacity and production in underground gas storages(UGSs);(ii)this ductility increases continuously in China.With the diversification of gas supply and the acceleration of UGS's construction,the system to resist risks and recover is greatly improved;(iii)at present,the key measures to promote the ductility and major risk prevention and resolution capacity are strengthening for the diversified development of gas import channels,reducing the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the domestic natural-gas system,and upgrading emergency mechanisms,and the construction of production,supply,storage and sales infrastructure.In conclusion,this estimation method provides scientific evidence and practical guidance for the management and optimization on the natural-gas system.

关 键 词：天然气 层次分析法 熵值法 天然气系统 韧性评价 评价指标 

分 类 号：TE08[石油与天然气工程]