财政政策对养老产业协同发展的影响--基于京津冀地区的异质性分析  

The Influence of Fiscal Policy on Coordinated Development of Pension Industry:Based on the Heterogeneity Analysis of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：任爱华[1] 刘洁 REN Aihua;LIU Jie(The Institution of Financial Innovation and Risk Management,Hebei Finance University,Baoding Hebei 071051,China)

机构地区：[1]河北金融学院金融创新与风险管理研究中心,河北保定071051

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2025年第4期89-95,共7页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目(HB23GL009)。

摘　　要：养老产业是现代化产业体系的重要组成部分,财政政策又是产业结构优化的重要手段,通过构建非线性结构模型,分析财政政策对养老产业协同发展的影响。而京津冀地区作为现代化产业体系建设的重要区域,基于该区域展开异质性效应分析,研究发现:一是工具异质性,支出型政策工具对北京、天津、河北的养老产业发展都具有提升作用;收入型政策工具对北京、天津养老产业发展有提升作用,但对河北养老产业发展却产生了虹吸效应。二是时期异质性,在经济上行时期,财政政策对养老产业发展的影响较大,影响效果延续性较强;在经济下行时期,财政政策对养老产业发展的影响较小,影响效果收敛速度较快。三是区域异质性,财政政策对河北养老产业发展的影响效果较强,对天津的影响效果适中,对北京的影响效果较小。Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an important region in the construction of modern industrial system,it analyses the heterogeneous effect based on this region.The pension industry is an important part of the modern industrial system,and fiscal policy is an important means to optimize the industrial structure.Based on this,this paper constructs a nonlinear structural model to explore the influence of fiscal policy on the development of pension industry.The findings are as follows:Firstly,the tools are heterogeneous,and the expenditure-oriented policy tools can promote the development of the pension industry in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei;Income-based policy tools can promote the development of pension industry in Beijing and Tianjin,but have a siphon effect on the development of pension industry in Hebei.Secondly,the periods are heterogeneous.In the economic upswing period,fiscal policy has a greater impact on the development of the pension industry,and the impact effect is more continuous;In the periodly of economic downturn,fiscal policy has little influence on the development of pension industry,and the influence effect converges faster.Thirdly,the regions are heterogeneous,fiscal policy has a strong impact on the development of pension industry in Hebei,a moderate impact on Tianjin,and a small impact on Beijing.

关 键 词：京津冀 财政政策 养老产业 现代化产业 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]