双延迟效应及失望规避下政企联合储备应急动态决策  

Emergency dynamic decision-making of government-enterprise joint reserve under double delayed effect and disappointment aversion

作　　者：史文强 张佳星 程永生[1] 汪明月 SHI Wenqiang;ZHANG Jiaxing;CHENG Yongsheng;WANG Mingyue(School of Business Administration,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330032,China;Institute of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学工商管理学院,江西南昌330032 [2]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100049

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2025年第3期195-209,共15页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71961008);江西省社会科学“十四五”基金项目(22GL41);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(21YJC630116)。

摘　　要：频发的突发公共卫生事件给社会秩序及人民生命安全造成了巨大的危害。政府和企业联合储备应急医疗物资是降低灾害损失的重要手段。本文以突发公共卫生事件为背景,假设政企双方决策者为失望规避者,考虑政府和企业储备努力对企业社会声誉的延迟效应,采取动态微分博弈方法,构建了无成本分担决策模式、成本分担决策模式和集中决策模式下的应急医疗物资政企联合储备模型,求解最优的储备努力水平、企业社会声誉和系统最优效益。研究结果表明:在集中决策模式下,应急供应链系统的最优决策可以达到帕累托最优;政企双方为失望规避者时对供应链系统效益和企业社会声誉产生抑制作用;政企双方的储备努力延迟时间对供应链系统效益和企业社会声誉具有正向促进作用。In recent years,frequent public health emergencies have caused enormous harm to economic development and the safety of human life.The year 2022 saw a rebound of the global epidemic under the influence of the new virus strain“Omicron”,with newly confirmed cases in the Chinese mainland exceeding 1000 for several consecutive days.To reduce the damage caused by major public health emergencies,it is necessary to reserve and provide a large number of emergency supplies for the affected area.Due to the uncertainty in the probability and demand of public health emergencies,which can easily lead to a shortage of supplies and untimely treatment,the importance of joint reserve work for emergency medical supplies is highlighted.The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that it is necessary to enhance the capacity of disaster prevention,mitigation,and relief and the handling of major public emergencies,and strengthen the construction of national and regional emergency forces.Meanwhile,the“14th Five-Year Plan”on the national emergency system proposed to select qualified enterprises to be included in enterprises for capacity reserve and establish a dynamic update and adjustment mechanism.Therefore,how to implement the joint reserve work of the government and enterprises for emergency medical supplies in the events of public health emergencies and improve the efficiency of the emergency supply chain has become a hot topic of concern for current scholars.Existing research on the reserve of emergency medical supplies has rarely explored the joint reserve model of the government and enterprises and considered the delayed effects and research on disappointment aversion is still mainly limited to static mathematical function solving in the commercial field.In addition,existing literature rarely takes the storage cycle and value decay of medical supplies into account,and a small number of scholars who have paid attention to the specific characteristics of medical supplies still use st

关 键 词：延迟效应 失望规避 政企联储 应急供应链 微分博弈 

分 类 号：D632.5[政治法律—政治学]