泥岩隧道塌方风险事故树分析  

Accident Tree Analysis of Mudstone Tunnel Collapse Risk

作　　者：迟德超 周长新 孙健 CHI Dechao;ZHOU Changxin;SUN Jian(Shandong Expressway Engineering Construction Group Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250098,Shandong,China;Shandong Jiaodong Aviation City Investment Co.,Ltd.,Qingdao 266300,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东高速工程建设集团有限公司,山东济南250098 [2]山东胶东航空城投资有限公司,山东青岛266300

出　　处：《广东交通职业技术学院学报》2025年第2期45-51,58,共8页Journal of Guangdong Communication Polytechnic

基　　金：山东省工业和信息化厅创新项目(编号:202060103144,202060101409)。

摘　　要：在泥岩地层的隧道施工中,因泥岩地质条件复杂,存在较多的节理、裂隙和含水层,强度较低,性质软弱,所以施工时易发生坍塌。针对泥岩隧道施工时的塌方问题,分析导致隧道塌方的几大因素以及发生机理,利用事故树分析法,编制了隧道塌方事故树。并结合云南古城大跨度泥岩隧道工程实例,对隧道中潜在的塌方因素进行定性定量分析,计算得出隧道坍塌的发生概率、各基本事件的重要度。基于时间概率和重要度分析制定了安全风险因子控制措施。In tunnel construction through mudstone formations,the complex geological conditions of mudstone,including the presence of numerous joints,fissures,and aquifers,as well as its relatively low strength and soft nature,make it prone to collapse during construction.This paper focuses on the collapse problem in mudstone tunnel construction,analyzing the major factors and mechanisms leading to tunnel collapse,and developing a collapse fault tree using fault tree analysis.Combining the example of the Yunnan Ancient City large-span mudstone tunnel project,a qualitative and quantitative analysis of potential collapse factors in tunnels is performed,calculating the probability of tunnel collapse and the importance of basic events.Based on the time probability and importance analysis,safety risk factor control measures are proposed.

关 键 词：泥岩隧道 坍塌 事故树 基本事件 

分 类 号：U451[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] U455[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]