中低油价情景下石油石化产业高质量发展路径探析  

High-quality Development Path of Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry under the Scenario of Medium-low Oil Prices

作　　者：罗佐县 Luo Zuoxian(SINOPEC Economics&Development Research Institute Company Limited,China Petrochemical Consulting Company Limited,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,中国石化咨询有限责任公司,北京100029

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2025年第4期1-6,23,共7页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：受经济危机、贸易摩擦等因素影响,全球经济增长动能不足,能源需求增幅趋缓。新能源快速发展以及新一轮美国大选后化石能源再发力,使未来国际油价中低位走势概率进一步增大,价格波动驱动石油石化产业结构再调整。油气勘探开发、油气储运以及石油炼化需重点克服资源条件复杂、投资成本高和结构调整环节多、难度大等核心困难。我国是油气需求大国及石油石化产能大国,经济发展和大规模石化产能支撑油气高位需求在较长时期内得以保持。应充分借鉴国际经验,通过财税、金融、科技等政策支持以及发展规划调整、技术管理创新等途径实现既定油气产业发展目标,倾力打造新的油气上中下游商业模式,加快形成新的石油石化产业均衡体系以支撑经济社会可持续发展。Affected by factors such as the economic crisis and trade frictions,the global economic growth momentum is insufficient,and the growth rate of energy demand is slowing down.The rapid development of new energy and the renewed impetus of fossil energy after a new round of the US presidential election further increase the probability of a low to medium trend in international oil prices in the future.Price fluctuations drive the readjustment of the structure of the petroleum and petrochemical industry.Oil and gas exploration and development,oil and gas storage and transportation,as well as petroleum refining and chemical production need to focus on overcoming core difficulties such as complex resource conditions,high investment costs,and numerous and difficult structural adjustment links.China is a major country in terms of oil and gas demand and a large producer of petroleum and petrochemical production capacity.The economic development and large-scale petrochemical production capacity support the maintenance of high oil and gas demand for a long time.We should fully draw on international experience,achieve the established development goals of the oil and gas industry through policy support in terms of taxation,finance,science and technology,as well as the adjustment of development plans,technological and management innovation,spare no effort to create a new business model for the upstream,midstream and downstream of the oil and gas industry,and accelerate the formation of a new balanced system of the petroleum and petrochemical industry to support the sustainable development of the economic society.

关 键 词：国际油价 石油石化产业 结构调整 商业模式 产业均衡 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]