基于潜变量和有序Logit地铁货运分担率预测研究  

Prediction Research of Subway Freight Sharing Rate Based on Latent Variables and Ordered Logit

作　　者：张涵 吕永波[1] 任远[1] 郭建伟 Zhang Han;Lü Yongbo;Ren Yuan;Guo Jianwei(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《地下空间与工程学报》2025年第2期384-392,共9页Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61872036);国家重点研发计划项目资助(2017YFC0804900)。

摘　　要：地铁货运作为城市的一种新型货运模式,存在货品运输属性限制、公众认可度不确定、货运需求不明晰等问题。针对地铁货运特性总结了其适运货品,调研了托运人的选择偏好,建立了集成潜变量和有序Logit的选择模型,并与传统Logit模型进行了对比。同时,分别评估了地铁货运对高附加值和低附加值货品托运人的吸引力,以托运人选择地铁货运的概率作为地铁货运分担率开展预测研究,进行了边际概率的分析。结果表明:相较于传统模型,本文所建立的选择模型具有更好的拟合度与解释力;两类货主选择转向地铁货运的概率均高于选择不转移的概率;换装次数和运输费用分别对高附加值货主和低附加值货主有显著影响,不换装可使高附加值货主转向地铁货运的概率增加53.01%,费用每减少一个单位可使低附加值货主转向地铁货运的概率增加23.70%。Subway freight transportation has problems such as limited transportation attributes,uncertain public recognition,and unclear freight demand.The characteristics of subway freight transportation are summarized and the selection preferences of shippers are investigated.An selection model integrating latent variables and ordered Logit is established and compared with traditional Logit models.The attractiveness of subway freight to shippers of high-and low-value-added goods is evaluated,predicting the probability of shippers choosing subway freight as the share rate of subway freight,and a marginal probability analysis is conducted.The results show that:Compared with the traditional model,the selection model established in this paper has better fitting degree and explanatory power.The probability of the two types of cargo owners choosing to switch to subway freight is higher than the probability of choosing not to transfer.The number of relocations and transportation costs significantly impact high-and low-value freight owners,respectively.Not reloading can increase the probability of high-value-added cargo owners turning to subway freight by 53.01%,and each unit of cost reduction can increase the probability of low-value-added cargo owners turning to subway freight by 23.70%.

关 键 词：综合交通运输 集成潜变量 有序LOGIT模型 地铁货运选择 吸引力评估 

分 类 号：U268[机械工程—车辆工程]