基于熵权TOPSIS模型的山东粮食安全评价研究及障碍因素分析  

Evaluation and Obstacle Factor Analysis of Food Security of Shandong Province Based on Entropy Weight TOPSIS Method

作　　者：宋昕怡 周霞 SONG Xinyi;ZHOU Xia(School of Economics and Management(Business School),Shandong Agricultural University,Tai'an 271018,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院(商学院),山东泰安271018

出　　处：《科技与经济》2025年第2期51-55,共5页Science & Technology and Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(一般项目)——“水资源非农化对粮食生产脆弱性的影响及调控政策研究”(项目编号:21BJY130,项目负责人:周玉玺)成果之一。

摘　　要：研究粮食总产量居全国第三的山东粮食安全问题,对保障国家粮食安全有极其重要的战略意义。基于2013—2022年的山东省级面板数据,从基础保障、数量安全、绿色发展、经济安全、农业现代化发展5个维度构建指标体系,分析山东粮食安全发展水平及障碍因子。结果显示,2013—2022年山东粮食安全总水平呈现先下降后上升的波动发展态势,其中水资源短缺、农业机械化发展缓慢、科技支撑不足以及粮食市场状况波动是当前存在的主要障碍因素。由此得出,山东需在强化水资源利用管理、提升农业科技化与机械化建设水平、推动粮食产业高质量发展多方面共同着力,以提升粮食安全水平。It is of great strategic significance to study the food security of Shandong Province,whose total grain output is the third in China.This study utilizes data of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022 to construct an indicator system based on five dimensions:basic guarantee,quantity security,green development,economic safety,and agricultural modernization.The findings indicate that from 2013 to 2022,the overall level of food security in Shandong Province exhibited a fluctuating trend characterized by an initial decline followed by recovery during this period;among them,water shortage,slow agricultural mechanization,insufficient scientific and technological support,and fluctuating food market conditions are the main obstacles.Consequently,it is recommended that Shandong Province enhance its management and utilization of water resources,strengthen agricultural technology and mechanization levels,and promote high-quality development within the grain industry to improve its food security level.

关 键 词：粮食安全 山东 指标体系 障碍因子 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]