绿色经济发展:统计测度、区域差异与动态演进  

Green Economy Development:Statistical Measurement,Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution

作　　者：傅宇涵 杨习铭 江思嘉 FU Yuhan;YANG Ximing;JIANG Sijia(School of Economics and Management,Communication University of China,Beijing 100024,China;School of Economics,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China;School of Economics,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]中国传媒大学经济与管理学院,北京100024 [2]新疆财经大学经济学院,乌鲁木齐830012 [3]安徽大学经济学院,合肥230601

出　　处：《科技与经济》2025年第2期76-80,共5页Science & Technology and Economy

基　　金：新疆社会科学基金项目——“新疆与‘一带一路’沿线国家数字经济合作发展动能与推进路径研究”(项目编号:2024BJL039,项目负责人:杨习铭)成果之一。

摘　　要：实现绿色发展的关键是提升绿色经济发展效率,有必要对其进行准确测度并探究特征与演进趋势。以2010—2021年我国30个省区市为研究对象,采用包含非期望产出的超效率SBM模型进行统计测度,综合利用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计、空间Markov链。研究表明:绿色经济发展效率在观测期内稳步提高,但存在非均衡发展特征,总体差异呈波动性扩大,区域间差异为主要诱因并不断加强;内部绝对差异呈扩大态势并伴随极化现象,不同区域演进趋势差异性显著,尚未形成稳定格局;绿色经济发展效率稳定性随时间推移而减弱,本地区向上转移概率与相邻地区绿色经济发展水平呈同向变动,向下转移概率则反之,且接邻高效率地区的溢出效应大于接邻低效率地区的负面效应。The key to achieve green development is to improve the efficiency of green economic development.Therefore,it is necessary to accurately measure it and explore its characteristics and evolution trends.Taking 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2010 to 2021 as the research object,the super-efficiency SBM model including undesired output was used for statistical measurement,and the Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation and spatial Markov chain were comprehensively used.The research shows that:the efficiency of green economic development has been steadily improved during the observation period,but there are unbalanced development characteristics.The overall difference fluctuates and the inter-regional differences are the main causes and continue to strengthen.The internal absolute difference is expanding and accompanied by polarization.The evolution trend of different regions is significantly different,and a stable pattern has not yet been formed.The stability of green economic development efficiency weakens with the passage of time.The upward transfer probability of the region changes in the same direction as the level of the adjacent regions,while the downward transfer probability is the opposite,and the spillover effect of the adjacent high-efficiency regions is greater than the negative effect of the adjacent low-efficiency regions.

关 键 词：分布动态演进 区域协同 空间Markov链 Kernel密度估计 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]