新农保对农村劳动力迁移的影响研究——信贷约束与代际支持视角  

The Impact of New Rural Pension Scheme on Rural Labor Migration:Perspectives from Credit Constraints and Intergenerational Support

作　　者：张晔[1] 程令国 Ye Zhang;Lingguo Cheng(Business School of Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《会计与经济研究》2024年第3期138-159,共22页Accounting and Economics Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(17YJA790016)。

摘　　要：一般认为,信贷约束是制约发展中国家农村劳动力向城市迁移的重要因素,我国新型农村养老保险制度的实施为检验该机制提供了良好契机。文章基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,采用断点回归模型,实证考察农村老年人领取新型农村养老保险养老金对子女劳动力迁移的影响,并探讨其内在作用机制。研究发现,新农保养老金能显著促进其子女的劳动力迁移。异质性检验发现,新农保对人均收入较低、家有未成年孙子女以及老年人健康状况较好家庭的子女劳动力迁移的影响更为显著,对成年儿子(尤其是独子)的劳动力迁移具有更为显著的促进作用。影响机制检验发现,新农保缓解了农村老年人的信贷约束,促使老年农民减少或退出生产性劳动,转向辅助性劳动,减轻了子女赡养老年父母和照料儿童的负担,从而推动劳动力迁移。It is generally believed that credit constraints are an important factor re-stricting the rural-to-urban labor migration in developing countries.The implementation of China's New Rural Pension Scheme(NRPS)provides a valuable opportunity to test this mechanism.Based on data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper uses a regression discontinuity design to empirically examine the impact of rural elderly receiving NRPS pensions on their children's labor migration,and explores the underlying mechanisms.The study finds that NRPS pensions can significantly promote their chil-dren's labor migration.Heterogeneity tests reveal that the NRPS has a more significantly impact on labor migration of children in households with lower per capita income,house-holds with minor grandchildren,and households where the elderly have better health.It also shows a more pronounced promotion effect on labor migration of adult sons(espe-cially only sons).Mechanism tests indicate that the NRPS alleviates credit constraints for rural elderly,prompts elderly farmers to reduce or withdraw from productive labor shiff-ing to auxiliary labor and reduces children's burdens of supporting elderly parents and caring for children,thereby driving labor migration.

关 键 词：新型农村养老保险 劳动力迁移 信贷约束 代际支持 

分 类 号：F840.6[经济管理—保险] F323.89