碳达峰的挑战性与跨区域能源合作  

The challenge of peak carbon dioxide emissions and cross regional energy cooperation

作　　者：王俊杰[1] 裘以峰 史丹[3] WANG Junjie;QIU Yifeng;SHI Dan(School of Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;Institute of Economic and Social Development,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;Institute of Industrial Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100006,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学经济学院,江西南昌330013 [2]江西财经大学经济与社会发展研究院,江西南昌330013 [3]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100006

出　　处：《海南大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2025年第3期142-149,共8页Journal of Hainan University (Humanities & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72063010);国家自然科学基金项目(72140001);教育部“春晖计划”项目(HZKY20220387);国家社会科学基金重点项目(22AZD095)。

摘　　要：中国区域间能源供需不平衡,各省碳达峰难度不同,有能源合作潜力,如江西省和四川省。本文用两省历史数据,估计CO2排放量与人均GDP、城镇人口、煤炭消费比重和能源强度的函数关系。然后,设定六种情景,预测两省碳排放量的变化趋势。结果表明,“中增长、高减排”情景下,江西省和四川省分别在2030年和2025年达峰。结合能源规划可知,江西省当前规划不能确保2030年达峰。为此,江西省需要提高生产端电气化水平,并在“十四五”期间每年投入12.75亿元和0.9亿元用于太阳能和风能装机容量增加。四川省需要在储能技术、生产端电气化水平和清洁电力外送能力方面加大投资。两省可利用特高压线路实现清洁能源的空间调配,在能源开发与储存技术上进行交流合作,促进早日达峰。对于清洁能源储备水平低的省份,从其他省份调入能源可能比自己发展清洁能源更经济。There is an uneven distribution of energy supply and demand across regions in China.Difficulties in peak carbon dioxide emissions vary in the provinces,and there exist potentials for energy cooperation,such as between Jiangxi and Sichuan.With the historical data from two provinces,this paper estimates the functional relationships between CO2 emissions and per capita GDP,urban population,coal consumption share,and energy intensity.Then,six scenarios are set up to predict the changes of carbon emissions in these two provinces.The results show that under the scenario of"medium growth,and high emission reduction",Jiangxi and Sichuan will peak in 2030 and 2025 respectively.Combined with the energy planning,it is found that Jiangxi's current plan cannot ensure the peak by 2030.Therefore,Jiangxi needs to improve the electrification level of the production side,and invest 1.275 billion yuan and 90 million yuan annually in the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan to increase the installed capacity of solar and wind energy.Sichuan needs to increase the investment in energy storage technology,the production-side electrification level,and the clean power delivery capacity.The two provinces can use the ultra-high voltage lines to achieve the spatial allocation of clean energy and exchange and cooperate in energy development and storage technology,so as to promote the early peak.For the provinces with low clean energy reserves,it may be more economical to import energy from other provinces than develop their own clean energy.

关 键 词：碳达峰 区域合作 能源结构 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]