集聚型传统村落火灾蔓延模型构建与路径分析——以安徽宏村为例  

Construction and path analysis of fire spread models in traditional village clusters:A case study of Hongcun in Anhui province

作　　者：吴运法 王岩青 陈萨如拉 陈泽昊 丁超 WU Yunfa;Wang Yanqing;Chen Sarula;Chen Zehao;Ding Chao(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China;State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Hefei 230026,China;Anhui Institute of Urban and Rural Planning and Design,Hefei 230051,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学建筑与规划学院,合肥230601 [2]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,合肥230026 [3]安徽省城乡规划设计研究院,合肥230051

出　　处：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第4期644-654,共11页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52478001,52476097);安徽省高校省级自然科学研究重点项目(2024AH050240);国家消防救援局科技计划(2023XFLR45);安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题(2023CX119,2023CX084)。

摘　　要：现有火灾蔓延模型研究多聚焦于建筑单体和森林火灾层面,鲜有针对传统村落布局形态的火灾蔓延研究。该文通过元胞自动机并结合火灾动力学,构建了一种考虑环境要素、建筑材料特性和布局等复杂村落环境条件下的火灾蔓延灾害场模型,对中国徽州集聚型传统村落进行火灾蔓延模拟,并采用验证模型分析了实际村落火灾蔓延过程中不确定性因素与火灾风险之间的关系。研究表明:火灾蔓延模拟结果与实际情况较吻合,充分证明该研究方法的可行性;风速在2~5 m/s范围内对火灾蔓延有延缓作用,在6~8 m/s范围内对火灾蔓延有促进作用,在主导风向南风和东风作用下,过火面积较小;水系、道路阻火要素限制了火灾蔓延方向,建筑分布密度与火灾蔓延速率呈正相关。[Objective]Fire risk has consistently posed a significant challenge in traditional villages owing to their diverse layouts and architectural elements,complex geographical environments,and the inherent flammability of building materials.Most research on fire spread models predominantly focuses on individual buildings or forest fires,neglecting the unique conditions of traditional villages.Safety concerns also limit field studies.Therefore,it is crucial to study fire spread dynamics in Huizhou's traditional villages to develop a quantitative model that enhances both fire safety and emergency response capabilities in these communities.[Methods]This paper constructs a disaster field model using cellular automata to simulate fire spread in village conditions,considering factors like fire dynamics,environmental characteristics,building materials,and layout considerations.The model was validated using the Miaozhai fire incident in Wenquan village,Jianhe county,Guizhou province(February 2016),analyzing how ignition points,wind speeds,and wind directions influenced potential ignition sites,spread paths,and impact zones.Computer simulations were employed to mitigate the risks associated with live-fire experiments,enhancing simulation efficiency.By incorporating multiple influencing factors into the prediction framework,this approach models how fires spread through village environments,using initial conditions regarding village elements and fire states to create visual data of fire spread patterns.However,most studies utilizing cellular automata primarily address forest fires,making them unsuitable for traditional villages.This paper specifically investigates Hongcun,a dense village in Anhui province,and proposes a model tailored to its unique wildfire risks,applicable to similar settings in the region.[Results]Findings indicate that simulated outcomes align closely with real-world observations,confirming the method's feasibility.Fires follow distinct pathways depending on different ignition sources,and densely clustered bu

关 键 词：传统村落 元胞自动机 火灾蔓延 模型构建 蔓延路径 集聚型布局 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]