基于Byram模型的地表可燃物碳消耗量预测模型研究  

Study on a predictive model for carbon consumption of surface fuels based on the Byram model

作　　者：耿道通 杨光[1,2] 宁吉彬 马尚炯 GENG Daotong;YANG Guang;NING Jibin;MA Shangjiong(Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of Education,College of Forestry,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China;Northern Forest Fire Management Key Laboratory of State Forestry and Grassland Administration,College of Forestry,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,森林生态系统可持续经营教育部重点实验室,哈尔滨150040 [2]东北林业大学林学院,北方林火管理国家林业和草原局重点实验室,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第4期664-671,共8页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(32371881);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2572024AW15,2572023CT01)。

摘　　要：为探究地表火行为特征与红松人工林地表可燃物燃烧碳消耗量之间的关系,该文在室内燃烧床上构建不同可燃物载量和含水率的可燃物床层,在不同坡度条件下进行了144场燃烧试验,测定了地表火蔓延过程中蔓延速率、火焰长度等指标。使用干烧法测量了燃烧剩余物含碳率,并计算了可燃物碳消耗量。结合Byram火线强度方程的可燃物消耗参数,建立了地表可燃物碳消耗量预测模型,并基于实验结果对模型参数进行了拟合。参数拟合后,模型的R^(2)上升了0.01,平均绝对误差(MAE)下降了0.12 kg/m^(2),平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)下降了42.01%,其预测可燃物碳消耗量的适用性和准确性有了显著提升。该研究可丰富林火科学的相关基础数据,对于构建适用于中国的可燃物碳消耗量预测系统具有现实意义。[Objective]The frequency and intensity of forest fires have increased considerably in recent years,driven largely by human activities and climate change.Vast quantities of carbon-containing substances released during forest fires exacerbate climate change through a positive feedback loop.Surface fires,the most common type of forest fire,account for more than half of the total emissions from forest fires.Accurate estimation of carbon emissions from surface fires is therefore essential for understanding their impact on carbon sinks and assessing the role of forest fires in driving climate change.[Methods]This study constructed indoor combustion beds to investigate the relationship between surface fire behavior and carbon consumption during the combustion of surface fuels in a planted Pinus koraiensis forest.Fuel beds were prepared with varying fuel loadings(0.4 kg·m^(-2),0.8 kg·m^(-2),1.2 kg·m^(-2),and 1.6 kg·m^(-2))and fuel moisture contents(5%,10%,and 15%).Combustion experiments were conducted across 144 plots under varying slope conditions(0°,10°,20°,and 30°).The rate of spread,flame length,and fuel consumption during surface fire spread were measured,and fireline intensity was calculated using the Byram model.After the experiments,all combustion residues were collected,and their carbon content was determined using the dry burning method,enabling the calculation of carbon consumption from the fuel.A predictive model for fuel carbon consumption was developed by combining the fuel consumption parameters from the Byram fireline intensity equation with the observed fire behavior data.The model parameters were calibrated using the experimental results.[Results]All 144 combustion experiments produced low-intensity surface fires.Most variable interactions significantly influenced the four forest fire behavior characteristics,except for the interaction between fuel load and moisture content,which mainly affected fuel consumption.The four measured fire behavior characteristics increased with higher fuel loads.As

关 键 词：林火行为特征 可燃物碳消耗量 Byram火线强度方程 参数拟合 

分 类 号：TP393.1[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]