构建辅助宏观决策的就业价格指数:理论、方法与应用  

Constructing the Employment Price Index to Assist Macroeconomic Policy:Theory,Method and Application

作　　者：万海远[1,2] 李帆 李强[4] 申萌 贺伟东[1,2] Wan Haiyuan;Li Fan;Li Qiang;Shen Meng;He Weidong(Business School,Beijing Normal University;China Institute for Income Distribution,Beijing Normal University;China DevelopmentResearch Foundation;ZhaoPin Information Technology Co.,Ltd;School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院 [2]北京师范大学中国收入分配研究院 [3]中国发展研究基金会 [4]北京网聘信息技术有限公司 [5]首都经济贸易大学经济学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2025年第4期1-21,共21页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“构建更加公平的收入分配秩序和财富积累机制研究”(基金号:24&ZD161)的资助。

摘　　要：本文使用全样本的招聘平台大数据,基于搜寻匹配理论来构建具有前瞻性的就业价格指数,以及时反映总体经济形势,并更好服务于宏观决策。针对特定条件的具体岗位,在企业率先给出报价后,求职者随后申请对应岗位并提供出价,在多层多维供求匹配后估计均衡工资增长率,就得到岗位层面的就业价格指数。以平台成交工资、平台求人倍率、调查工资、调查失业率来检验,发现指数表现都非常稳健。以供求匹配后的极小岗位颗粒度作为底层数据,发现新指数能及时反映市场均衡工资变化,为研判总体价格走势提供参考,具有指示失业率和宏观经济的作用。就业价格指数是就业数量和工资价格的结合,可以更敏感捕捉量价分离现象。新指数具有明确的宏观指引、顺畅的中观传导,且在微观层面能真实可感,能先导性体现市场预期,前瞻性指示经济形势变化,有助于弥合宏观经济与微观感受温差,可作为宏观决策的辅助性指标。This paper utilizes a recruitment platform big data,and constructs a new employment price index based on search and matching theory to dynamically monitor the macroeconomy,better serving macro decision-making.For specific job positions with particular conditions,after enterprises providing the initial wage offer,job seekers apply for corresponding positions based on their own conditions and submit their wage bids.The equilibrium wage growth rate is estimated based on the supply-demand matched wage bids,allowing us to construct the employment price index at the job level.The robustness of this index is confirmed through testing against platform turnover wages,platform vacancy rates,surveyed wages,and surveyed unemployment rates.By utilizing the granular data of job positions after supply-demand matching,the index can reflect real-time changes in market wages,providing a reference for analyzing macro-price trends and serving to monitor the unemployment rate and the macroeconomy.The employment price index combines employment quantity and wage price,which can capture the phenomenon of volume-price divergence.It provides clear macroeconomic guidance,facilitates smooth transmission at the meso level,and has tangible applications at the micro level.By proactively reflecting market expectations,it helps bridge the gap between macroeconomy conditions and individual perceptions,serving as an auxiliary indicator for macroeconomic decision-making.

关 键 词：就业价格指数 岗位工资出价 供求匹配 空缺填补率 工作找寻率 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]