银行业宏观审慎政策存在融资涓滴效应吗?——基于央行宏观审慎评估增设行业信贷指标的准自然实验  

Does Macro Prudential Assessment in Banking Sector Lead to a Trickle-Down Effect?A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the Addition of Industry Credit Metrics to the Central Bank's Macro Prudential Assessment

作　　者：马传慧 姚驰 方军雄 Ma Chuanhui;Yao Chi;Fang Junxiong(School of Finance and Management,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics;School of Accounting,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院 [2]中南财经政法大学会计学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2025年第4期22-37,共16页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“独立第三方平台线上销售数据的治理效应研究”(项目批准号:72272132)、国家自然科学基金项目“不确定性下双支柱调控框架的传导机制与政策效应研究”(项目批准号:72303148);上海市“科技创新行动计划”软科学研究青年项目“双支柱调控框架下金融支持科技创新的作用机制与政策效应研究”(项目批准号:24692103500);上海市教育委员会“晨光计划”项目(项目批准号:22CGA73)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：建立宏观审慎评估体系支持实体经济发展一直是我国金融制度建设的核心,2019年中国人民银行在宏观审慎评估体系中增设的制造业中长期贷款和信用贷款等指标为检验宏观审慎政策的实体经济效应提供了难得契机,在此背景下,本文采用双重差分模型系统检验银行业宏观审慎政策融资涓滴效应的存在性及其机理和经济后果。研究发现,相比其他公司,宏观审慎评估指标增设受益的相关制造业上市公司,其获得的银行信贷显著增加,这使得其增加了对上下游企业的商业信用,这说明银行业宏观审慎政策存在供应链的“融资涓滴效应”。机制检验表明,指标增设受益公司融资约束缓解是产生融资涓滴效应的重要渠道。对经济后果的进一步研究发现,宏观审慎政策存在实体经济效应,具体表现为宏观审慎政策指标增设后,政策受益公司新客户数量和企业利润呈现上升趋势。综上,本文的研究结论表明中国银行业宏观审慎政策存在明显的融资涓滴效应和实体经济效应。Strengthening the Macro Prudential Assessment(MPA)system to boost development of the real economy has consistently been a pivotal issue in China's financial development trajectory.In 2019,the People's Bank of China incorporated indicators such as long-term loans and credit loans specifically for the manufacturing industry into the MPA system,presenting a valuable and scarce opportunity to evaluate the real economic impacts of macro-prudential policies.This study employs the Difference-in-Differences(DID)model to comprehensively investigate the existence,mechanisms,and economic implications of the trickle-down effect of macro-prudential policies within the banking sector.The research findings reveal that,compared to other firms,manufacturing companies benefiting from the inclusion of macro-prudential assessment indicators experience a significant surge in bank credit availability.Simultaneously,these manufacturing firms have also augmented the commercial credit to their upstream and downstream enterprises,indicating the presence of a"trickle-down effect"in the supply chain.Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the alleviation of financing constraints for beneficiary manufacturing firms is the crucial factor contributing to the emergence of the trickle-down effect.Further investigations uncover the real economic effects of macro-prudential policies.Following the incorporation of macro-prudential policy indicators,there is an observed increase in the number of new customers and corporate profitability.In conclusion,the findings of this paper vividly reflect the discernible trickle-down and real economic effects of macro-prudential policies within the Chinese banking sector.

关 键 词：宏观审慎政策 商业信用 融资涓滴效应 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]