关税波动对国内市场价格的影响  

The Impact of Tariff Change on Domestic Market Prices

作　　者：樊海潮 吴彩云 戴觅[3] Fan Haichao;Wu Caiyun;Dai Mi(Institute of World Economy,Fudan University;School of Economics,Fudan University;Business School,Beijing Normal University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学世界经济研究所 [2]复旦大学经济学院 [3]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2025年第4期56-71,共16页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家自然科学重点项目(72433002);面上项目(72373030;72373012;71973013);应急管理项目(72341008)的资助。

摘　　要：关税变动不仅会影响中国的对外贸易,亦会对中国的国内市场产生影响。本文基于中国国内市场的产品价格监测数据、关税数据以及进出口海关数据,研究了进出口关税变化对中国国内市场产品价格的影响。结果显示,美国对中国额外加征的进口关税降低了中国国内市场的产品价格。这主要是由于中国产品出口美国受阻且同类产品未充分转销至第三国,企业将销售重心更多地转向国内市场,导致国内市场竞争加剧。与此相对,中国对美国额外加征的进口关税显著提高了国内市场的产品售价。这主要是由于自美国进口产品的含税价格整体抬升,以及受贸易保护的国产产品价格上升。结合世界投入产出表和中国行业间的投入产出联系,本文进一步考察了关税在产业间的传导。总体而言,中国国内物价整体未明显受到国际市场关税波动的冲击,但不同产品受到的影响存在显著差异。此外,关税上升虽然对价格的整体影响有限,但仍带来了一些负面的经济影响。本研究为深入理解关税变动对国内市场的传导提供了新的经验证据,同时也为我国构建“双循环”新发展格局、保持经济平稳运行提供了重要的政策启示。Tariffs significantly influence both China's foreign trade and domestic market.Combining comprehensive data of domestic prices,tariffs,and trade,this paper investigates the impact of tariff changes on product prices in China's domestic market.The results show that the import tariffs imposed by the United States on China lowered product prices in China's domestic market.The price reduction is mainly due to the intensified domestic competition owning to the decline of exports to the U.S.and a limited resale of products to third countries.In contrast,the additional import tariffs imposed by China on the U.S.significantly raised the prices of products in China's domestic market,largely due to the price increases for imports from the U.S.and the prices of domestically produced products.Finally,we examine the transmission of tariffs across industries through input-output linkages.While domestic prices remain largely unaffected by bilateral tariff fluctuations,impacts vary significantly by products.Although tariff hikes have a limited overall price impact,they introduce negative economic effects.This research offers fresh empirical insights into effects of tariffs on domestic market and crucial policy implications for Chinese'dual circulation'strategy and economic stability.

关 键 词：关税变动 国内市场价格 投入产出联系 

分 类 号：F752.5[经济管理—国际贸易]