税收征管数字化与企业盈余管理的策略性选择  

Digitalization of Tax Enforcement and Strategic Choices for Corporate Earnings Management

作　　者：方红生[1] 夏恺楠 Hongsheng;XIA Kainan(Zhejiang University,310058)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,310058

出　　处：《财贸经济》2025年第4期22-38,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：研究阐释党的二十大精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“有利于共同富裕的税收制度改革研究”(23ZDA020)。

摘　　要：推进税收征管数字化升级、提升税收治理效能,是深化税收征管改革的应有之义。本文基于“金税三期”工程的准自然实验,利用2009—2016年A股上市公司数据,研究了税收征管数字化对企业应计盈余管理、真实盈余管理和分类转移盈余管理方式选择的影响。研究发现,税收征管数字化显著降低了企业应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理程度,但提高了分类转移盈余管理程度。这一效应是由于税收征管数字化降低信息不对称,促进纳税遵从、落实税收优惠,抑制了应计和真实盈余管理,但无法约束分类转移盈余管理,导致企业提高分类转移盈余管理程度以替代受抑制的应计和真实盈余管理。异质性分析表明,税收征管数字化对企业盈余管理策略性选择的影响主要体现在非国有企业、非政治关联企业和地税局征管企业中。本研究为推进税收征管数字化建设、完善现代公司治理指明了方向。The digital transformation of tax enforcement is a key goal of tax reform, particularly in China.In 2021, the “Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of Tax Collection and Administration” outlined the goal of “governing taxes with data,” emphasizing the comprehensive advancement of digital and intelligent tax enforcement to significantly enhance tax compliance and social satisfaction. Central to this reform is the “Golden Tax Ⅲ ” Project(GT3), a nationwide project launched in 2013 that leverages big data, cloud computing, and cross-agency collaboration to monitor transactions, invoices, and tax filings in real time. While GT3 has been lauded for curbing tax evasion and improving tax compliance, its broader implications for corporate financial reporting—specifically, how firms adapt their earnings management strategies in response to heightened oversight—remain underexplored.This paper examines how the digitalization of tax enforcement reshapes corporate earnings management strategies, using panel data from Chinese A-share listed firms(2009-2016) and quasi-natural experiments based on GT3. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences approach, the study yields three key findings.(1) The digitalization of tax enforcement significantly reduced Accrual-based Earnings Management(AEM) and Real Earnings Management(REM) but increased Classification-shifting Earnings Management(CEM).(2) This shift occurs because digitalization reduces information asymmetry, enhances tax compliance, implements tax incentives, thus inhibiting AEM and REM. However, it cannot restrain CEM, leading firms to replace suppressed AEM and REM with CEM.(3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of digitalization is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, nonpolitical-affiliated firms, and companies managed by local tax bureaus.This paper contributes to the literature in several ways. First, it integrates CEM into tax enforcement research, revealing nuanced strategic adaptations by firms in response to digitali

关 键 词：税收征管数字化 “金税三期”工程 盈余管理 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]